Sat, Feb 8, 2025·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Tampa Bay Lightning 6, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 47 | 05 | 26 | 618 |
| DET | 210 | 119 | 08 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:28TBLBrandon HagelAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Erik Cernak · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 2:56TBLErik CernakAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
- P1 9:47DETVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Moritz Seider, Alex DeBrincat · Snap, 0.17 xG2–1
- P1 11:49TBLBrayden PointAssists: Gage Goncalves, Brandon Hagel · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–1
- P1 15:13TBLNick PaulGWGAssists: Brandon Hagel, Erik Cernak · Snap, 0.16 xG4–1
- P1 16:54DETPatrick KanePPAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Lucas Raymond · Snap, 0.21 xG4–2
- P2 14:29DETAlex DeBrincatUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–3
- P3 4:10TBLDylan DukeAssists: Mitchell Chaffee, Nick Perbix · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–3
- P3 17:57TBLBrandon HagelENAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.61 xG6–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 16:46TBLNikita Kucherov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:30TBLNikita Kucherov: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:00DETSimon Edvinsson: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glendening won the faceoff against Compher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPoint – Hagel – Goncalves9:05
xG 0.59–0.21 (74%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Kucherov – Guentzel – Cirelli12:26
xG 0.73–0.66 (52%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
- Glendening – Chaffee – Duke6:20
xG 0.12–0.32 (28%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Girgensons – Paul – Eyssimont8:58
xG 0.17–0.53 (24%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Perbix5:46
xG 0.49–0.23 (68%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Raddysh – Lilleberg3:08
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Cernak16:13
xG 0.45–0.38 (54%)attempts 11–13goals 3–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Copp – DeBrincat10:51
xG 0.95–0.65 (59%)attempts 17–11goals 2–2
- Larkin – Raymond – Kasper13:53
xG 0.83–0.56 (60%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
- Kane – Rasmussen – Soderblom11:37
xG 0.41–0.36 (53%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Compher – Veleno – Berggren9:52
xG 0.19–0.26 (42%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Seider17:59
xG 1.12–0.56 (67%)attempts 22–12goals 2–1
- Johansson – Edvinsson19:46
xG 0.79–0.86 (48%)attempts 17–16goals 0–2
- Holl – Gustafsson12:43
xG 0.16–0.33 (32%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).