Thu, Feb 27, 2025·Capital One Arena, Washington
St. Louis Blues 5, Washington Capitals 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 28 | 27 | 14 | 519 |
| WSH | 15 | 18 | 05 | 218 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:14STLPhilip BrobergAssists: Mathieu Joseph · Slap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 15:04WSHPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Taylor Raddysh, Connor McMichael · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 17:45STLPhilip BrobergAssists: Jake Neighbours, Pavel Buchnevich · Backhand, 0.20 xG2–1
- P2 16:55WSHConnor McMichaelAssists: Matt Roy, Ethen Frank · Snap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 17:23STLDylan HollowayGWGAssists: Ryan Suter, Brayden Schenn · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–2
- P2 17:58STLColton ParaykoAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Robert Thomas · Snap, 0.31 xG4–2
- P3 18:05STLJake NeighboursENAssists: Brayden Schenn, Radek Faksa · Snap, 0.58 xG5–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 7:24STLPavel Buchnevich: Holding2 min
- P2 7:32WSHAndrew Mangiapane: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:29STLJordan Kyrou: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dowd won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Thomas – Neighbours12:59
xG 1.28–0.18 (88%)attempts 16–11goals 2–0
- Faksa – Walker – Toropchenko8:25
xG 0.11–0.04 (72%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Joseph – Bolduc7:24
xG 0.18–0.17 (51%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Schenn – Kyrou – Holloway10:52
xG 0.21–0.27 (43%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Parayko15:13
xG 1.05–0.23 (82%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
- Suter – Leddy16:48
xG 0.24–0.41 (37%)attempts 6–12goals 1–1
- Faulk – Broberg16:42
xG 0.23–0.41 (36%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestDubois – McMichael – Protas5:16
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Dowd – Vrana – Duhaime6:11
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Raddysh – Dubois – McMichael6:54
xG 0.13–0.10 (55%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Eller – Mangiapane – Frank5:53
xG 0.06–0.16 (27%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRoy – Fehérváry11:37
xG 0.41–0.08 (84%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Chychrun8:11
xG 0.20–0.07 (75%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Sandin5:20
xG 0.13–0.12 (51%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).