Wed, Mar 12, 2025·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Buffalo Sabres 3, Detroit Red Wings 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 29 | 19 | 08 | 326 |
| DET | 310 | 110 | 39 | 729 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:38BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Bowen Byram · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 12:36DETMarco KasperAssists: Simon Edvinsson, Patrick Kane · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 15:40DETAlex DeBrincatAssists: Patrick Kane, Marco Kasper · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P1 19:07DETPatrick KanePPAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Larkin · Snap, 0.12 xG1–3
- P1 19:25BUFJosh NorrisAssists: Zach Benson, Tage Thompson · Snap, 0.24 xG2–3
- P2 10:54DETVladimir TarasenkoGWGAssists: Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–4
- P2 18:12BUFZach BensonPPAssists: Owen Power, Ryan McLeod · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–4
- P3 1:36DETPatrick KanePPAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Lucas Raymond · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–5
- P3 5:39DETMarco KasperAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Patrick Kane · Snap, 0.18 xG3–6
- P3 14:31DETMoritz SeiderPPAssists: Dylan Larkin, Lucas Raymond · Snap, 0.11 xG3–7
Penalties (27)
- P1 18:23BUFJiri Kulich: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:31BUFUkko-Pekka Luukkonen: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:54BUFJack Quinn: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 15:45DETAlex DeBrincat: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 19:11BUFJason Zucker: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:53BUFJordan Greenway: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 6:26DETAlbert Johansson: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:26BUFZach Benson: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:54DETMichael Rasmussen: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:54BUFAlex Tuch: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 12:28DETJ.T. Compher: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:28BUFJordan Greenway: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:28BUFJordan Greenway: Misconduct10 min
- P3 12:28DETJ.T. Compher: Misconduct10 min
- P3 13:45BUFRyan McLeod: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:51DETSimon Edvinsson: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:51BUFMattias Samuelsson: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:51BUFBowen Byram: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:51BUFTage Thompson: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:51BUFJosh Norris: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:51BUFZach Benson: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:51DETMarco Kasper: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:51DETSimon Edvinsson: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:51DETDominik Shine: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:51DETAlbert Johansson: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:21DETMoritz Seider: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:21BUFBeck Malenstyn: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rasmussen won the faceoff against Krebs
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGreenway – Krebs – Quinn2:50
xG 0.24–0.10 (70%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Zucker – Tuch – McLeod8:34
xG 0.39–0.39 (50%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
- Lafferty – Malenstyn – Krebs4:50
xG 0.01–0.15 (5%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Thompson – Norris – Benson10:03
xG 0.15–0.40 (28%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Samuelsson – Dahlin7:52
xG 0.09–0.08 (53%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Dahlin – Power5:56
xG 0.29–0.30 (49%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Clifton – Samuelsson2:30
xG 0.12–0.24 (34%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestKane – DeBrincat – Kasper8:27
xG 0.88–0.34 (72%)attempts 9–12goals 3–0
- Motte – Shine – Rasmussen6:45
xG 0.45–0.03 (94%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Larkin – Soderblom – Raymond10:46
xG 0.51–0.24 (68%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
- Smith – Tarasenko – Compher8:23
xG 0.30–0.48 (38%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohansson – Edvinsson12:49
xG 0.83–0.11 (89%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Holl – Gustafsson12:08
xG 0.67–0.43 (61%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1
- Chiarot – Seider13:23
xG 0.54–0.41 (57%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).