Sat, Mar 15, 2025·TD Garden, Boston
Tampa Bay Lightning 6, Boston Bruins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 100% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 110 | 321 | 29 | 640 |
| BOS | 18 | 00 | 14 | 212 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:22TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Yanni Gourde, Darren Raddysh · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 15:58BOSElias LindholmAssists: Andrew Peeke, Jakub Lauko · Slap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 2:13TBLNick PaulAssists: Emil Lilleberg, Gage Goncalves · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 7:22TBLAnthony CirelliGWGAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Yanni Gourde · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 17:08TBLDarren RaddyshAssists: Emil Lilleberg, Nick Paul · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–1
- P3 0:23BOSMarat KhusnutdinovAssists: Henri Jokiharju, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–2
- P3 16:31TBLBrandon HagelENAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Erik Cernak · Backhand, 0.63 xG5–2
- P3 19:15TBLAnthony CirelliENAssists: Victor Hedman · Deflected, 0.75 xG6–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 7:50TBLGage Goncalves: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 10:41BOSNikita Zadorov: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:01BOSJakub Lauko: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Cirelli – Hagel12:30
xG 1.16–0.21 (85%)attempts 21–5goals 0–1
- Gourde – Guentzel – Point12:07
xG 0.98–0.05 (95%)attempts 21–8goals 1–0
- Bjorkstrand – Paul – Goncalves8:24
xG 0.69–0.14 (83%)attempts 9–2goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestPerbix – Lilleberg7:29
xG 0.84–0.00 (100%)attempts 13–2goals 1–0
- Hedman – Raddysh4:17
xG 0.55–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 1–0
- Hedman – Moser12:04
xG 0.62–0.11 (86%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- Pastrnak – Zacha – Geekie12:03
xG 0.46–0.43 (52%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
- Pastrnak – Geekie – Mittelstadt2:33
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Lauko – Khusnutdinov10:03
xG 0.09–0.39 (18%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Lettieri – Mittelstadt – Koepke8:03
xG 0.00–0.33 (0%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Peeke – Lohrei14:30
xG 0.34–0.55 (39%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
- Zadorov – Jokiharju17:35
xG 0.35–1.01 (26%)attempts 12–23goals 1–0
- Wotherspoon – Mitchell9:32
xG 0.06–1.03 (6%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 100% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).