Thu, Mar 20, 2025·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Dallas Stars 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 114 | 19 | 012 | 03 | 3 | 338 |
| DAL | 08 | 28 | 08 | 00 | 2 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:35TBLBrandon HagelAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Nikita Kucherov · Snap, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 7:21TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Brandon Hagel, Yanni Gourde · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–0
- P2 7:58DALOskar BäckAssists: Colin Blackwell, Sam Steel · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 13:48DALMason MarchmentPPAssists: Jamie Benn, Matt Duchene · Poke, 0.25 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. DAL Jason Robertson scored
- 2. TBL Jake Guentzel scored
- 3. DAL Matt Duchene scored
- 4. TBL Brayden Point stopped
- 5. DAL Wyatt Johnston stopped
- 6. TBL Nikita Kucherov scored
- 7. DAL Mikko Rantanen stopped
- 8. TBL Gage Goncalves scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 17:47DALLian Bichsel: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:47TBLZemgus Girgensons: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:13DALCody Ceci: Holding2 min
- P2 11:49TBLVictor Hedman: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 11:49DALColin Blackwell: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:49TBLOliver Bjorkstrand: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:26TBLJake Guentzel: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Paul
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGourde – Guentzel – Point11:22
xG 0.74–0.19 (80%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Bjorkstrand – Paul – Goncalves11:00
xG 1.18–0.63 (65%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Cirelli – Hagel10:19
xG 0.62–0.37 (63%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestRaddysh – Moser2:53
xG 0.90–0.21 (81%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Hedman – Raddysh6:04
xG 0.45–0.08 (85%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Hedman – Moser13:12
xG 0.81–0.45 (64%)attempts 19–6goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBlackwell – Bäck – Bourque2:59
xG 0.12–0.03 (79%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Benn – Bourque – Johnston5:40
xG 0.04–0.06 (37%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Steel – Bäck4:18
xG 0.10–0.15 (41%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Benn – Rantanen – Hintz3:49
xG 0.09–0.14 (38%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Lyubushkin – Harley17:45
xG 0.57–0.59 (49%)attempts 13–21goals 0–1
- Ceci – Lindell16:38
xG 0.54–1.15 (32%)attempts 6–17goals 0–0
- Dumba – Bichsel12:14
xG 0.14–0.89 (14%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).