Tue, Mar 25, 2025·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 04 | 04 | 17 | 115 |
| TBL | 411 | 210 | 06 | 627 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:13TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Nick Paul, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 13:30TBLRyan McDonaghGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Erik Cernak · Snap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P1 15:12TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Brandon Hagel, J.J. Moser · Snap, 0.07 xG0–3
- P1 16:00TBLBrayden PointAssists: Jake Guentzel, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–4
- P2 15:31TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Darren Raddysh, Oliver Bjorkstrand · Snap, 0.07 xG0–5
- P2 19:19TBLBrandon HagelAssists: Nick Perbix, Emil Lilleberg · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–6
- P3 14:15PITBryan RustAssists: Matt Grzelcyk, Sidney Crosby · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:02PITRickard Rakell: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:05TBLEmil Lilleberg: Interference2 min
- P2 13:39PITRyan Graves: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 3:53PITBokondji Imama: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:53PITBokondji Imama: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:53PITBokondji Imama: Misconduct10 min
- P3 4:48TBLNikita Kucherov: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- Imama – Koppanen – Bemstrom5:02
xG 0.10–0.06 (61%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Rakell14:44
xG 0.34–0.38 (47%)attempts 11–22goals 1–2
- Hayes – Heinen – Tomasino7:24
xG 0.05–0.37 (12%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Acciari – Dewar – Lizotte11:38
xG 0.32–0.72 (31%)attempts 11–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Letang – Karlsson3:53
xG 0.06–0.10 (38%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Timmins12:20
xG 0.53–0.71 (43%)attempts 17–12goals 0–2
- Graves – Kolyachonok10:45
xG 0.03–0.35 (9%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Guentzel – Point12:15
xG 0.97–0.16 (86%)attempts 21–10goals 2–0
- Paul – Cirelli – Hagel10:58
xG 0.87–0.18 (83%)attempts 19–4goals 3–1
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Goncalves8:37
xG 0.44–0.23 (66%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Glendening – Gourde – Girgensons2:14
xG 0.01–0.02 (36%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Raddysh12:45
xG 1.00–0.30 (77%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- McDonagh – Moser11:24
xG 0.83–0.14 (85%)attempts 22–4goals 2–1
- McDonagh – Cernak4:16
xG 0.34–0.03 (93%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).