Thu, Mar 27, 2025·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Buffalo Sabres 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 17 | 012 | 27 | 326 |
| BUF | 210 | 512 | 08 | 730 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:27BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Zach Benson, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 4:44BUFPeyton KrebsAssists: Alex Tuch, Connor Clifton · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–2
- P1 11:11PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Rickard Rakell, Matt Grzelcyk · Snap, 0.25 xG1–2
- P2 3:36BUFJiri KulichAssists: Bowen Byram, Tage Thompson · Snap, 0.18 xG1–3
- P2 5:20BUFMattias SamuelssonGWGAssists: Isak Rosen, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–4
- P2 11:34BUFJiri KulichAssists: Bowen Byram, Jack Quinn · Snap, 0.07 xG1–5
- P2 12:02BUFTyson KozakAssists: Beck Malenstyn, Peyton Krebs · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–6
- P2 19:34BUFAlex TuchAssists: Owen Power, Tyson Kozak · Snap, 0.09 xG1–7
- P3 2:16PITBlake LizotteUnassisted · Other, 1.00 xG2–7
- P3 13:54PITKevin HayesAssists: Conor Timmins, Ryan Graves · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–7
Penalties (11)
- P1 6:41PITSidney Crosby: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:18BUFZach Benson: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:23BUFConnor Clifton: Interference2 min
- P2 9:32PITBlake Lizotte: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:05PITConnor Dewar: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:05BUFRasmus Dahlin: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:53PITConnor Dewar: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:53PITConnor Dewar: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:53BUFJacob Bernard-Docker: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:54PITVladislav Kolyachonok: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 15:01BUFJiri Kulich: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Kulich
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- Hayes – Heinen – Dewar4:16
xG 0.15–0.20 (43%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Hayes – Dewar – Tomasino4:40
xG 0.18–0.29 (39%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Crosby – Rust – Rakell15:22
xG 0.28–0.53 (35%)attempts 9–13goals 1–2
- Acciari – Koppanen – Lizotte10:33
xG 0.09–0.51 (15%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Timmins10:51
xG 0.68–0.13 (84%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Letang – Grzelcyk12:45
xG 1.46–0.93 (61%)attempts 15–15goals 2–4
- Shea – Timmins2:33
xG 0.04–0.11 (28%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Kulich – Benson11:40
xG 0.74–0.12 (86%)attempts 12–11goals 2–0
- Malenstyn – Dunne – Kozak4:19
xG 0.01–0.15 (4%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
- McLeod – Quinn – Peterka8:54
xG 0.27–0.64 (30%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
- Tuch – Krebs – Rosen7:30
xG 0.50–1.27 (28%)attempts 11–9goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestDahlin – Bernard-Docker2:26
xG 0.10–0.04 (71%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Bernard-Docker – Power9:12
xG 0.23–0.22 (51%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
- Clifton – Byram14:29
xG 0.59–0.63 (49%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).