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Ice Lab

Thu, Mar 27, 2025·KeyBank Center, Buffalo

Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Buffalo Sabres 7

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 55% of the time.

BUF winsPIT wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:27Goal by Thompson (Benson, Dahlin)+9 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Thompson, Samuelsson, Dahlin, Kulich, Benson · PIT Crosby, Letang, Rust, Rakell, Grzelcyk

  3. P1 4:44Goal by Krebs (Tuch, Clifton)+10 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Clifton, Tuch, Dahlin, Krebs, Rosen · PIT Letang, Rust, Rakell, Grzelcyk, Lizotte

  4. P1 6:05Shot by Quinn, saved by Jarry
  5. P1 6:39Shot by Kulich, saved by Jarry
  6. P1 6:41Crosby: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Thompson, Dahlin, Bernard-Docker, Power, Benson · PIT Crosby, Letang, Rust, Rakell, Grzelcyk

  7. P1 6:44Shot by Timmins, saved by Reimer5v4
  8. P1 11:11Goal by Crosby (Rakell, Grzelcyk)+11 pts WP

    On ice: BUF McLeod, Samuelsson, Dahlin, Quinn, Peterka · PIT Crosby, Letang, Rust, Rakell, Grzelcyk

  9. P1 11:31Shot by Benson, saved by Jarry
  10. P1 11:32Shot by Kulich, saved by Jarry
  11. P1 11:45Shot by Clifton, saved by Jarry
  12. P1 12:33Shot by Karlsson, saved by Reimer
  13. P1 14:18Benson: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Thompson, Samuelsson, Dahlin, Kulich, Benson · PIT Crosby, Letang, Rust, Rakell, Grzelcyk

  14. P1 15:37Shot by Hayes, saved by Reimer4v5
  15. P1 15:43Shot by Hayes, saved by Reimer4v5
  16. P1 16:06Shot by Malenstyn, saved by Jarry4v5
  17. P1 16:43Shot by Thompson, saved by Jarry
  18. P1 18:29Shot by Rosen, saved by Jarry
  19. P1 18:33Shot by Letang, saved by Reimer
  20. P1 18:41Shot by Grzelcyk, saved by Reimer
  21. P1 0:00Period end
  22. P2 0:00Period start
  23. P2 3:36Goal by Kulich (Byram, Thompson)+13 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Clifton, Thompson, Byram, Kulich, Benson · PIT Letang, Grzelcyk, Acciari, Koppanen, Lizotte

  24. P2 4:07Shot by Hayes, saved by Reimer
  25. P2 4:08Shot by Hayes, saved by Reimer
  26. P2 4:25Shot by Rust, saved by Reimer
  27. P2 4:57Shot by Tomasino, saved by Reimer
  28. P2 5:20Goal by Samuelsson (Rosen, Dahlin)+7 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Tuch, Samuelsson, Dahlin, Krebs, Rosen · PIT Hayes, Shea, Dewar, Tomasino, Kolyachonok

  29. P2 6:23Clifton: Interference (2 min)5v6

    On ice: BUF Clifton, Malenstyn, Byram, Dunne, Kozak · PIT Karlsson, Hayes, Rust, Rakell, Heinen, Timmins

  30. P2 7:43Shot by Rust, saved by Reimer4v5
  31. P2 9:32Lizotte: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Dahlin, Bernard-Docker, Quinn, Peterka, Kulich · PIT Acciari, Shea, Koppanen, Timmins, Lizotte

  32. P2 9:37Shot by McLeod, saved by Nedeljkovic5v4
  33. P2 9:39Shot by Peterka, saved by Nedeljkovic5v4
  34. P2 10:00Shot by Thompson, saved by Nedeljkovic5v4
  35. P2 10:04Shot by Dahlin, saved by Nedeljkovic5v4
  36. P2 10:43Shot by Peterka, saved by Nedeljkovic5v4
  37. P2 11:34Goal by Kulich (Byram, Quinn)+3 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Byram, Quinn, Power, Kulich, Benson · PIT Letang, Grzelcyk, Acciari, Dewar, Lizotte

  38. P2 12:01Shot by Malenstyn, saved by Nedeljkovic
  39. P2 12:02Goal by Kozak (Malenstyn, Krebs)+1 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Malenstyn, Samuelsson, Bernard-Docker, Krebs, Kozak · PIT Crosby, Rust, Rakell, Graves, Shea

  40. P2 12:17Shot by Dewar, saved by Reimer
  41. P2 12:22Shot by Hayes, saved by Reimer
  42. P2 15:19Shot by Rust, saved by Reimer
  43. P2 15:31Shot by Benson, saved by Nedeljkovic
  44. P2 15:39Shot by Crosby, saved by Reimer
  45. P2 18:00Shot by Dewar, saved by Reimer
  46. P2 18:01Shot by Lizotte, saved by Reimer
  47. P2 18:05Dewar: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Tuch, Samuelsson, Dahlin, Krebs, Rosen · PIT Karlsson, Timmins, Dewar, Lizotte, Tomasino

  48. P2 18:05Dahlin: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Tuch, Samuelsson, Dahlin, Krebs, Rosen · PIT Karlsson, Timmins, Dewar, Lizotte, Tomasino

  49. P2 19:34Goal by Tuch (Power, Kozak)4v40 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Tuch, Bernard-Docker, Power, Kozak · PIT Letang, Grzelcyk, Koppanen, Tomasino

  50. P2 19:56Shot by Letang, saved by Reimer4v4
  51. P2 0:00Period end4v4
  52. P3 0:00Period start
  53. P3 2:12Shot by Letang, saved by Reimer
  54. P3 2:14Shot by Lizotte, saved by Reimer
  55. P3 2:16Goal by Lizotte, unassisted0 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Tuch, Samuelsson, Dahlin, Krebs, Rosen · PIT Letang, Rust, Grzelcyk, Koppanen, Lizotte

  56. P3 3:54Shot by Dahlin, saved by Nedeljkovic
  57. P3 4:42Shot by Karlsson, saved by Reimer
  58. P3 5:53Dewar: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Thompson, Bernard-Docker, Power, Kulich, Benson · PIT Hayes, Heinen, Shea, Dewar, Kolyachonok

  59. P3 5:53Dewar: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: BUF Thompson, Bernard-Docker, Power, Kulich, Benson · PIT Hayes, Heinen, Shea, Dewar, Kolyachonok

  60. P3 5:53Bernard-Docker: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: BUF Thompson, Bernard-Docker, Power, Kulich, Benson · PIT Hayes, Heinen, Shea, Dewar, Kolyachonok

  61. P3 6:51Shot by Rust, saved by Reimer5v4
  62. P3 8:24Shot by Byram, saved by Nedeljkovic
  63. P3 8:34Shot by Kozak, saved by Nedeljkovic
  64. P3 8:39Shot by Rosen, saved by Nedeljkovic
  65. P3 9:27Shot by Dahlin, saved by Nedeljkovic
  66. P3 13:31Shot by Benson, saved by Nedeljkovic
  67. P3 13:54Goal by Hayes (Timmins, Graves)0 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Malenstyn, Bernard-Docker, Dunne, Power, Kozak · PIT Hayes, Graves, Heinen, Timmins, Dewar

  68. P3 14:25Shot by Rust, saved by Reimer
  69. P3 14:50Shot by Krebs, saved by Nedeljkovic
  70. P3 14:54Kolyachonok: Delaying game puck over glass (2 min)

    On ice: BUF McLeod, Bernard-Docker, Byram, Quinn, Peterka · PIT Graves, Acciari, Koppanen, Lizotte, Kolyachonok

  71. P3 15:01Kulich: Tripping (2 min)5v4

    On ice: BUF Bernard-Docker, Byram, Quinn, Kulich, Benson · PIT Karlsson, Acciari, Timmins, Dewar

  72. P3 16:57Shot by Clifton, saved by Nedeljkovic4v5
  73. P3 0:00Period end
  74. P3 0:00Final