Tue, Apr 1, 2025·UBS Arena, Elmont
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, New York Islanders 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 111 | 26 | 17 | 424 |
| NYI | 110 | 09 | 010 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:46TBLOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Darren Raddysh, Brayden Point · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 10:57NYIBo HorvatSHAssists: Ryan Pulock · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 8:09TBLJake GuentzelGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 10:41TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Jake Guentzel · Snap, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 16:29TBLNick PaulENAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Erik Cernak · Wrist, 0.71 xG4–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:16TBLMitchell Chaffee: Roughing2 min
- P1 4:16NYIKyle Palmieri: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:07NYICasey Cizikas: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:46TBLBrandon Hagel: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:13NYIMaxim Tsyplakov: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:26TBLEmil Lilleberg: Holding2 min
- P2 5:13TBLJ.J. Moser: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00TBLAnthony Cirelli: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:24NYIAnders Lee: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:59NYIPierre Engvall: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:21TBLYanni Gourde: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:21NYICasey Cizikas: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Guentzel – Point9:44
xG 0.46–0.09 (83%)attempts 7–3goals 2–0
- Gourde – Girgensons – Chaffee2:27
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Girgensons – Paul – Chaffee2:46
xG 0.01–0.01 (42%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Paul – Cirelli – Hagel8:26
xG 0.03–0.27 (10%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Raddysh2:29
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 2–0
- McDonagh – Cernak10:22
xG 0.43–0.14 (75%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Hedman – Moser10:26
xG 0.17–0.23 (43%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestCizikas – Fasching – Engvall9:14
xG 0.58–0.02 (97%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- MacLean – Gatcomb – Tsyplakov8:31
xG 0.33–0.20 (62%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Pageau – Duclair – Holmstrom10:31
xG 0.15–0.27 (36%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
- Palmieri – Lee – Horvat7:33
xG 0.50–0.68 (42%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – DeAngelo12:48
xG 0.66–0.48 (58%)attempts 17–8goals 0–2
- Pulock – Boqvist12:12
xG 0.35–0.24 (59%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Pelech – Dobson2:03
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).