Tue, Apr 15, 2025·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Florida Panthers 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 07 | 110 | 07 | 124 |
| TBL | 38 | 110 | 113 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:32TBLBrayden PointAssists: Yanni Gourde, J.J. Moser · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 15:25TBLConor GeekieGWGAssists: Brayden Point, Victor Hedman · Slap, 0.11 xG0–2
- P1 18:09TBLJake GuentzelSHAssists: Anthony Cirelli · Snap, 0.25 xG0–3
- P2 4:42TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Yanni Gourde, Brayden Point · Snap, 0.13 xG0–4
- P2 5:36FLABrad MarchandAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Matt Kiersted · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–4
- P3 11:22TBLDarren RaddyshPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Slap, 0.23 xG1–5
Penalties (14)
- P1 4:21FLANiko Mikkola: Interference2 min
- P1 12:58TBLErik Cernak: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:58FLAJaycob Megna: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:58TBLErik Cernak: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:02FLASam Bennett: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:11TBLBrandon Hagel: Interference2 min
- P1 17:11TBLBrandon Hagel: Abuse of officials2 min
- P2 6:17FLAMatt Kiersted: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:46TBLGage Goncalves: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 8:28FLAJesse Puljujarvi: Match penalty5 min · PPG
- P3 8:28TBLConor Geekie: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:28FLANico Sturm: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:28TBLZemgus Girgensons: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:56FLANiko Mikkola: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestRodrigues – Puljujarvi – Samoskevich3:34
xG 0.22–0.15 (59%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Puljujarvi – Luostarinen – Sturm4:03
xG 0.18–0.16 (52%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Rodrigues – Boqvist – Samoskevich3:17
xG 0.06–0.30 (17%)attempts 2–5goals 0–2
- Boqvist – Luostarinen – Sturm5:40
xG 0.02–0.42 (4%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Balinskis4:47
xG 0.21–0.10 (67%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Schmidt2:52
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Kiersted2:37
xG 0.14–0.12 (54%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Gourde – Point4:47
xG 0.30–0.13 (70%)attempts 5–6goals 2–0
- Guentzel – Cirelli – Hagel7:44
xG 0.61–0.45 (58%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Girgensons – Chaffee – Goncalves2:11
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Gourde – Girgensons – Chaffee2:17
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Moser5:43
xG 0.66–0.04 (95%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- McDonagh – Cernak8:36
xG 0.82–0.43 (65%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Hedman – Raddysh3:23
xG 0.32–0.17 (66%)attempts 5–4goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).