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Ice Lab

Tue, Apr 15, 2025·Amalie Arena, Tampa

Florida Panthers 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 85% of the time.

TBL winsFLA wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:39Shot by Mikkola, saved by Vasilevskiy
  3. P1 1:08Shot by Samoskevich, saved by Vasilevskiy
  4. P1 1:32Goal by Point (Gourde, Moser)+9 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Hedman, Kucherov, Gourde, Point, Moser · FLA Jones, Rodrigues, Mikkola, Boqvist, Samoskevich

  5. P1 3:45Shot by Mikkola, saved by Vasilevskiy
  6. P1 4:21Mikkola: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Hedman, Kucherov, Gourde, Point, Raddysh · FLA Jones, Mikkola, Puljujarvi, Luostarinen, Sturm

  7. P1 5:35Shot by Hagel, saved by Vanecek5v4
  8. P1 6:11Shot by Jones, saved by Vasilevskiy5v4
  9. P1 8:13Shot by Goncalves, saved by Vanecek
  10. P1 8:38Shot by Sturm, saved by Vasilevskiy
  11. P1 10:09Shot by Guentzel, saved by Vanecek
  12. P1 11:29Shot by Goncalves, saved by Vanecek
  13. P1 12:58Cernak: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TBL McDonagh, Guentzel, Cernak, Cirelli, Hagel · FLA Marchand, Megna, Verhaeghe, Bennett, Balinskis

  14. P1 12:58Megna: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TBL McDonagh, Guentzel, Cernak, Cirelli, Hagel · FLA Marchand, Megna, Verhaeghe, Bennett, Balinskis

  15. P1 12:58Cernak: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TBL McDonagh, Guentzel, Cernak, Cirelli, Hagel · FLA Marchand, Megna, Verhaeghe, Bennett, Balinskis

  16. P1 13:29Shot by Jones, saved by Vasilevskiy4v5
  17. P1 13:50Shot by Girgensons, saved by Vanecek4v5
  18. P1 15:25Goal by Geekie (Point, Hedman)+11 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Hedman, Kucherov, Point, Raddysh, Geekie · FLA Kulikov, Mikkola, Gadjovich, Boqvist, Sturm

  19. P1 16:02Bennett: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Guentzel, Cirelli, Hagel, Moser, Lilleberg · FLA Marchand, Verhaeghe, Jones, Bennett, Kiersted

  20. P1 17:09Shot by Marchand, saved by Vasilevskiy5v4
  21. P1 17:11Hagel: Interference (2 min)5v4

    On ice: TBL Kucherov, Guentzel, Point, Raddysh, Hagel · FLA Marchand, Kulikov, Megna, Sturm

  22. P1 17:11Hagel: Abuse of officials (2 min)5v4

    On ice: TBL Kucherov, Guentzel, Point, Raddysh, Hagel · FLA Marchand, Kulikov, Megna, Sturm

  23. P1 18:09Goal by Guentzel (Cirelli)4v5+7 pts WP

    On ice: TBL McDonagh, Guentzel, Cernak, Cirelli · FLA Marchand, Jones, Bennett, Rodrigues, Samoskevich

  24. P1 0:00Period end4v5
  25. P2 0:00Period start
  26. P2 0:32Shot by Cirelli, saved by Vanecek4v5
  27. P2 2:24Shot by Luostarinen, saved by Vasilevskiy
  28. P2 2:25Shot by Luostarinen, saved by Vasilevskiy
  29. P2 2:50Shot by Paul, saved by Vanecek
  30. P2 3:55Shot by Chaffee, saved by Vanecek
  31. P2 4:42Goal by Kucherov (Gourde, Point)+4 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Hedman, Kucherov, Gourde, Point, Raddysh · FLA Jones, Rodrigues, Boqvist, Samoskevich, Balinskis

  32. P2 5:36Goal by Marchand (Verhaeghe, Kiersted)+4 pts WP

    On ice: TBL McDonagh, Guentzel, Cernak, Cirelli, Hagel · FLA Marchand, Schmidt, Verhaeghe, Bennett, Kiersted

  33. P2 6:17Kiersted: Hooking (2 min)6v5

    On ice: TBL Kucherov, Paul, Raddysh, Goncalves, Moser, Geekie · FLA Schmidt, Asplund, Puljujarvi, Gadjovich, Kiersted

  34. P2 8:41Shot by Rodrigues, saved by Vasilevskiy
  35. P2 9:36Shot by Schmidt, saved by Vasilevskiy
  36. P2 11:04Shot by Hedman, saved by Vanecek
  37. P2 11:18Shot by Sturm, saved by Vasilevskiy
  38. P2 12:05Shot by Samoskevich, saved by Vasilevskiy
  39. P2 12:36Shot by Jones, saved by Vasilevskiy
  40. P2 14:24Shot by Kucherov, saved by Vanecek
  41. P2 15:18Shot by Hagel, saved by Vanecek
  42. P2 17:06Shot by McDonagh, saved by Vanecek
  43. P2 17:32Shot by Puljujarvi, saved by Vasilevskiy
  44. P2 18:23Shot by Samoskevich, saved by Vasilevskiy
  45. P2 18:34Shot by Kucherov, saved by Vanecek
  46. P2 19:46Shot by Paul, saved by Vanecek
  47. P2 0:00Period end
  48. P3 0:00Period start
  49. P3 0:50Shot by Cirelli, saved by Vanecek
  50. P3 1:16Shot by Boqvist, saved by Vasilevskiy
  51. P3 2:44Shot by Perbix, saved by Vanecek
  52. P3 3:09Shot by Moser, saved by Vanecek
  53. P3 3:17Shot by Hagel, saved by Vanecek
  54. P3 3:53Shot by Bennett, saved by Vasilevskiy
  55. P3 3:58Shot by Balinskis, saved by Vasilevskiy
  56. P3 5:46Goncalves: Interference goalkeeper (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Paul, Perbix, Goncalves, Lilleberg, Geekie · FLA Kulikov, Boqvist, Luostarinen, Sturm, Kiersted

  57. P3 6:06Shot by Hagel, saved by Vanecek4v5
  58. P3 7:07Shot by Balinskis, saved by Vasilevskiy4v5
  59. P3 8:25Shot by Lilleberg, saved by Vanecek
  60. P3 8:28Puljujarvi: Match penalty (5 min)

    On ice: TBL Girgensons, Chaffee, Moser, Lilleberg, Geekie · FLA Kulikov, Mikkola, Puljujarvi, Luostarinen, Sturm

  61. P3 8:28Geekie: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Girgensons, Chaffee, Moser, Lilleberg, Geekie · FLA Kulikov, Mikkola, Puljujarvi, Luostarinen, Sturm

  62. P3 8:28Sturm: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: TBL Girgensons, Chaffee, Moser, Lilleberg, Geekie · FLA Kulikov, Mikkola, Puljujarvi, Luostarinen, Sturm

  63. P3 8:28Girgensons: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: TBL Girgensons, Chaffee, Moser, Lilleberg, Geekie · FLA Kulikov, Mikkola, Puljujarvi, Luostarinen, Sturm

  64. P3 9:52Shot by Goncalves, saved by Vanecek4v4
  65. P3 9:56Mikkola: Holding the stick (2 min)4v4

    On ice: TBL Paul, Raddysh, Goncalves, Moser · FLA Verhaeghe, Jones, Rodrigues, Mikkola

  66. P3 11:22Goal by Raddysh (Kucherov, Hedman)5v3+1 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Hedman, Kucherov, Guentzel, Point, Raddysh · FLA Megna, Jones, Gadjovich

  67. P3 12:35Shot by Gourde, saved by Vanecek5v4
  68. P3 13:07Shot by Hedman, saved by Vanecek5v4
  69. P3 13:22Shot by Hedman, saved by Vanecek5v4
  70. P3 13:30Shot by Gadjovich, saved by Vasilevskiy
  71. P3 13:34Shot by Mikkola, saved by Vasilevskiy
  72. P3 15:17Shot by Rodrigues, saved by Vasilevskiy
  73. P3 18:52Shot by Girgensons, saved by Vanecek
  74. P3 19:07Shot by Gourde, saved by Vanecek
  75. P3 0:00Period end
  76. P3 0:00Final