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Ice Lab

Thu, Oct 23, 2025·Ball Arena, Denver

Carolina Hurricanes 5, Colorado Avalanche 4 (SO)

Away

Carolina Hurricanes

5

Final

Shootout

Home

Colorado Avalanche

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 77% of the time.

COL winsCAR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
CAR41205012021531
COL118116211030448

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:07CAREric RobinsonAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Mike Reilly · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
  2. P1 4:04COLValeri NichushkinUnassisted · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–1
  3. P1 7:17CARSeth JarvisSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–1
  4. P1 12:41CARSebastian AhoAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Seth Jarvis · Deflected, 0.11 xG3–1
  5. P1 13:40CARLogan StankovenAssists: Jackson Blake, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.30 xG4–1
  6. P2 4:46COLParker KellyAssists: Sam Malinski, Ross Colton · Deflected, 0.12 xG4–2
  7. P3 4:45COLMartin NecasAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Nathan MacKinnon · Snap, 0.04 xG4–3
  8. P3 14:09COLValeri NichushkinPPAssists: Victor Olofsson, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.23 xG4–4

Shootout

  1. 1. CAR Seth Jarvis scored
  2. 2. COL Valeri Nichushkin stopped
  3. 3. CAR Andrei Svechnikov stopped
  4. 4. COL Martin Necas stopped
  5. 5. CAR Jackson Blake stopped
  6. 6. COL Artturi Lehkonen stopped
Penalties (17)
  1. P1 5:50CARCharles Alexis Legault: Roughing2 min
  2. P2 1:58CARAlexander Nikishin: Slashing2 min
  3. P2 4:46CARAndrei Svechnikov: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
  4. P2 8:15CARTaylor Hall: Slashing2 min
  5. P2 12:33COLBrock Nelson: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 18:39CARCharles Alexis Legault: Interference2 min
  7. P3 2:01COLSam Malinski: Interference2 min
  8. P3 5:14COLParker Kelly: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 5:14CARTaylor Hall: Roughing2 min
  10. P3 6:59CARJalen Chatfield: Holding2 min
  11. P3 13:18CARSebastian Aho: Interference2 min · PPG
  12. P3 16:01COLValeri Nichushkin: Holding the stick2 min
  13. P3 17:45COLJack Drury: Holding2 min
  14. P3 17:45CARSean Walker: Holding2 min
  15. P3 18:13COLBrock Nelson: High sticking2 min
  16. OT 1:36COLMartin Necas: Hooking2 min
  17. OT 3:44CARLogan Stankoven: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CAR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0COL
47% to win53% to win
← CAR attackCOL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Staal
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CARCOL
31Shots on goal48
2.6Expected goals4.5
54Shot attempts81
33Faceoffs won40
5Power plays8
20Penalty minutes14
19Hits28
12Blocked shots12
12Giveaways10
4Takeaways5

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Carolina Hurricanes

Forward lines

  1. Hall – Stankoven – Blake8:55

    xG 0.38–0.39 (50%)attempts 5–9goals 1–1

  2. Ehlers – Aho – Jarvis9:27

    xG 0.51–0.52 (49%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0

  3. Staal – Martinook – Svechnikov3:29

    xG 0.01–0.16 (7%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0

  4. Robinson – Kotkaniemi – Svechnikov3:29

    xG 0.04–0.35 (10%)attempts 2–7goals 1–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestChatfield – Nikishin5:06

    xG 0.33–0.07 (83%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0

  2. Reilly – Walker5:24

    xG 0.47–0.36 (57%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0

  3. Chatfield – Legault2:25

    xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0

Colorado Avalanche

Forward lines

  1. bestNelson – Landeskog – Nichushkin5:00

    xG 0.72–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0

  2. Kelly – Bardakov – Brindley3:12

    xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0

  3. Olofsson – Colton – Drury3:14

    xG 0.12–0.00 (97%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0

  4. Colton – Kelly – Drury5:17

    xG 0.20–0.11 (65%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestBurns – Manson9:58

    xG 0.64–0.08 (89%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0

  2. Manson – Toews2:07

    xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0

  3. Toews – Makar9:59

    xG 0.91–0.80 (53%)attempts 16–9goals 2–2

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

COL 4.5 xGCAR 2.6 xG
012345P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

COLCAR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 98/100 · #31 of 1312 this seasonSwing 2.50 · 8 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 46% (winner's lowest chance)
CAR 100%5050%50COL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +27 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 77% of the time.

COL winsCAR wins

Simulated goal difference (COL − CAR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).