Wed, Oct 29, 2025·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 09 | 118 | 29 | 336 |
| CBJ | 26 | 37 | 111 | 624 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:56CBJCole SillingerAssists: Charlie Coyle, Mathieu Olivier · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 11:16CBJZach WerenskiAssists: Charlie Coyle, Mathieu Olivier · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 2:43TORSammy BlaisAssists: Jake McCabe, Steven Lorentz · Bat, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 8:33CBJIvan ProvorovAssists: Dmitri Voronkov, Kirill Marchenko · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 13:24CBJCole SillingerGWGAssists: Charlie Coyle, Zach Werenski · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–4
- P2 16:58CBJDante FabbroAssists: Mathieu Olivier, Cole Sillinger · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–5
- P3 7:50CBJMathieu OlivierAssists: Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–6
- P3 15:45TORJohn TavaresAssists: Matthew Knies, Nick Robertson · Snap, 0.18 xG2–6
- P3 18:10TORNick RobertsonAssists: Max Domi, Sammy Blais · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–6
Penalties (4)
- P1 18:18TORPhilippe Myers: Holding2 min
- P3 3:41CBJDamon Severson: Holding2 min
- P3 4:02TORAuston Matthews: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:25CBJDmitri Voronkov: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestDomi – Blais – Lorentz5:12
xG 0.44–0.05 (90%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1
- Matthews – Robertson – McMann10:21
xG 0.58–0.35 (62%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Joshua – Roy – Cowan11:36
xG 0.59–0.42 (59%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Tavares – Maccelli – Knies7:35
xG 0.56–0.65 (46%)attempts 8–12goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Benoit3:30
xG 0.49–0.03 (94%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- McCabe – Benoit10:37
xG 0.62–0.29 (68%)attempts 13–9goals 1–3
- McCabe – Carlo2:58
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestWood – Lundeström – Chinakhov10:47
xG 0.42–0.18 (69%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Monahan – Marchenko – Voronkov10:43
xG 0.66–0.45 (59%)attempts 6–15goals 1–0
- Coyle – Olivier – Sillinger11:06
xG 0.60–0.68 (47%)attempts 11–13goals 5–0
- Jenner – Johnson – Fantilli11:55
xG 0.11–1.53 (7%)attempts 11–25goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Provorov15:56
xG 1.08–0.61 (64%)attempts 16–15goals 3–0
- Werenski – Mateychuk16:09
xG 0.34–0.63 (35%)attempts 10–20goals 2–0
- Fabbro – Christiansen14:24
xG 0.44–1.22 (27%)attempts 20–22goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).