Tue, Dec 9, 2025·Centre Bell, Montreal
Tampa Bay Lightning 6, Montréal Canadiens 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 314 | 14 | 29 | 627 |
| MTL | 07 | 115 | 05 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:27TBLBrayden PointAssists: Jake Guentzel, Oliver Bjorkstrand · Snap, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 6:03TBLPontus HolmbergGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.19 xG2–0
- P1 17:12TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Max Crozier · Slap, 0.05 xG3–0
- P2 2:43TBLCharle-Edouard D'AstousAssists: Nikita Kucherov · Snap, 0.14 xG4–0
- P2 19:06MTLOliver KapanenPPAssists: Nick Suzuki, Ivan Demidov · Bat, 0.12 xG4–1
- P3 1:22TBLDarren RaddyshAssists: Anthony Cirelli · Snap, 0.48 xG5–1
- P3 8:41TBLDarren RaddyshPPAssists: Brayden Point · Snap, 0.02 xG6–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 3:56TBLPontus Holmberg: Interference2 min
- P1 3:56MTLBrendan Gallagher: Roughing2 min
- P1 3:56TBLMax Crozier: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:44TBLNikita Kucherov: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:33MTLArber Xhekaj: Interference2 min
- P2 18:10TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 5:54MTLZachary Bolduc: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:37MTLArber Xhekaj: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:16TBLScott Sabourin: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:16MTLJosh Anderson: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:03TBLEmil Lilleberg: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:03MTLJared Davidson: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Evans
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGourde – Girgensons – Holmberg10:33
xG 1.43–0.07 (95%)attempts 23–6goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Cirelli – Hagel8:48
xG 0.79–0.48 (62%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Kucherov – Guentzel – Point3:45
xG 0.15–0.23 (40%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Guentzel – Bjorkstrand – Point9:57
xG 0.13–0.26 (34%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRaddysh – D'Astous3:29
xG 0.93–0.16 (86%)attempts 7–1goals 3–0
- Crozier – Moser4:23
xG 0.62–0.31 (67%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- D'Astous – Crozier4:38
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Veleno – Bolduc – Davidson9:54
xG 0.20–0.23 (46%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský11:35
xG 0.54–0.87 (38%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
- Texier – Kapanen – Demidov8:37
xG 0.18–0.61 (22%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Anderson – Evans7:19
xG 0.08–0.68 (11%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Carrier3:25
xG 0.26–0.15 (63%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
- Struble – Hutson7:52
xG 0.26–0.16 (62%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Dobson – Hutson2:28
xG 0.12–0.11 (54%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).