Tue, Dec 16, 2025·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
New York Islanders 2, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 17 | 07 | 14 | 218 |
| DET | 08 | 05 | 38 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:27NYIEmil HeinemanAssists: Mathew Barzal, Jonathan Drouin · Slap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P3 2:03DETAxel Sandin-PellikkaAssists: Lucas Raymond · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 3:55DETAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Moritz Seider, Lucas Raymond · Snap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 11:26NYIScott MayfieldAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Anders Lee · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 17:43DETAlex DeBrincatPPGWGAssists: Moritz Seider, Lucas Raymond · Snap, 0.10 xG2–3
Penalties (3)
- P2 18:10DETSimon Edvinsson: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:17NYIMatthew Schaefer: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 16:50NYIScott Mayfield: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danielson won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Pageau – Holmstrom11:01
xG 0.48–0.12 (80%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Cizikas – MacLean – Gatcomb9:37
xG 0.04–0.14 (22%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Drouin – Barzal – Heineman15:18
xG 0.64–1.46 (30%)attempts 22–19goals 1–0
- Duclair – Ritchie – Shabanov10:00
xG 0.03–0.95 (3%)attempts 3–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Pelech – DeAngelo14:43
xG 0.16–0.46 (26%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Pulock – Schaefer19:26
xG 0.65–1.14 (36%)attempts 22–28goals 0–1
- Mayfield – Mitchell13:28
xG 0.28–0.97 (22%)attempts 10–17goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestLarkin – Raymond – Finnie14:40
xG 1.10–0.37 (75%)attempts 20–12goals 0–1
- Copp – DeBrincat – Leonard11:22
xG 0.53–0.25 (68%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Soderblom – Kasper – Danielson8:34
xG 0.32–0.08 (81%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Compher – Rasmussen10:37
xG 0.39–0.36 (52%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeider – Edvinsson19:51
xG 1.76–0.21 (90%)attempts 30–12goals 0–1
- Chiarot – Sandin-Pellikka16:23
xG 0.65–0.43 (60%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- Bernard-Docker – Johansson12:38
xG 0.19–0.31 (38%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).