Wed, Jan 7, 2026·Capital One Arena, Washington
Dallas Stars 4, Washington Capitals 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 91% of the time.
88%
WSH winsDAL wins
Who was on the ice
Model-basedLine matchups and every shift of the game.
WSH forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against DAL's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.
| Rantanen–Steel–Johnston | Hintz–Robertson–Bourque | Duchene–Blackwell–Hryckowian | Faksa–Bastian–Bäck | Rantanen–Hintz–Robertson | Duchene–Blackwell–Steel | Duchene–Bourque–Hryckowian | Lindell–Heiskanen | Lyubushkin–Harley | Capobianco–Lundkvist | Lundkvist–Harley | Lindell–Lyubushkin | Heiskanen–Harley | Capobianco–Heiskanen | Lindell–Lundkvist | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McMichael–Sourdif–Leonard | 7:240.00–0.11 | 2:050.00–0.02 | 1:110.10–0.18 | 4:180.00–0.02 | 3:350.04–0.02 | 0:510.00–0.11 | 1:220.01–0.00 | 1:430.00–0.00 | 0:400.08–0.17 | ||||||
| Ovechkin–Strome–Beauvillier | 0:580.20–0.26 | 0:480.17–0.00 | 2:200.00–0.07 | 1:230.09–0.00 | 2:380.04–0.00 | 1:100.23–0.00 | 1:540.00–0.00 | ||||||||
| Dowd–Duhaime–Frank | 1:350.01–0.29 | 3:520.11–0.18 | 2:110.07–0.29 | 1:280.01–0.10 | 1:300.03–0.08 | 0:360.01–0.00 | |||||||||
| Milano–Leason–Lapierre | 0:460.07–0.00 | 2:050.04–0.08 | 0:300.00–0.05 | 0:320.04–0.00 | 2:110.07–0.04 | ||||||||||
| Ovechkin–Dowd–Milano | 0:450.00–0.00 | 1:240.04–0.23 | 1:210.04–0.23 | 0:360.00–0.00 | |||||||||||
| Strome–Beauvillier–Frank | 1:400.00–0.13 | 1:140.00–0.05 | 0:560.00–0.08 | ||||||||||||
| Ovechkin–Strome–Frank | 0:350.00–0.00 | 0:370.00–0.00 | 0:310.14–0.00 | ||||||||||||
| Ovechkin–Strome–Leonard | 0:350.00–0.00 | 0:350.00–0.00 | |||||||||||||
| Roy–Chychrun | 1:530.07–0.00 | 2:520.05–0.10 | 1:090.01–0.00 | 2:050.13–0.08 | 1:030.00–0.00 | 6:120.22–0.13 | 0:300.07–0.00 | 0:510.00–0.00 | 0:430.00–0.08 | ||||||
| Carlson–Fehérváry | 4:160.00–0.05 | 1:250.14–0.08 | 0:460.00–0.08 | 1:170.00–0.09 | 0:300.00–0.00 | 3:320.00–0.05 | 1:370.14–0.02 | 2:230.00–0.17 | 0:370.00–0.00 | 0:530.00–0.00 | |||||
| Carlson–Sandin | 2:240.20–0.28 | 0:510.03–0.05 | 0:390.08–0.17 | 0:400.00–0.00 | 2:150.00–0.00 | 0:400.03–0.00 | 0:350.00–0.05 | 0:410.00–0.00 | 0:490.08–0.20 | ||||||
| McIlrath–Sandin | 2:080.25–0.00 | 0:440.00–0.00 | 1:310.18–0.00 | 0:360.07–0.00 | 1:000.00–0.00 | ||||||||||
| Roy–Sandin | 0:420.01–0.29 | 0:350.04–0.06 | 1:280.02–0.00 | 1:170.04–0.29 | 1:190.02–0.00 | ||||||||||
| Roy–Fehérváry | 2:020.07–0.26 | 0:480.06–0.00 | 1:350.13–0.00 | ||||||||||||
| Carlson–Chychrun | 0:350.00–0.00 | 0:470.00–0.00 | 0:490.13–0.00 | 0:570.00–0.00 | 0:350.00–0.00 | ||||||||||
| Chychrun–Sandin | 1:080.00–0.11 | 0:360.00–0.00 | 1:120.00–0.00 | 0:470.00–0.00 | 0:380.00–0.11 | ||||||||||
| Carlson–Roy | 0:570.00–0.07 | 1:480.00–0.00 | |||||||||||||
| Chychrun–Fehérváry | 1:260.01–0.36 | 0:590.00–0.23 | |||||||||||||
| McIlrath–Chychrun | 0:380.00–0.00 | 0:370.00–0.00 | |||||||||||||
| Fehérváry–Sandin | |||||||||||||||
| McIlrath–Fehérváry | 0:500.00–0.02 |
Every shift, one row per player.
WSHDALFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.
Shift totals
 Miro HeiskanenDAL | 28 | 28:02 | 1:00 | 1:55 | 2 | 4 |
 John CarlsonWSH | 28 | 27:37 | 0:59 | 2:07 | 5 | 6 |
 Esa LindellDAL | 29 | 26:49 | 0:55 | 1:55 | 1 | 5 |
 Jakob ChychrunWSH | 24 | 24:30 | 1:01 | 2:29 | 2 | 1 |
 Thomas HarleyDAL | 26 | 22:11 | 0:51 | 1:43 | 2 | 3 |
 Ryan LeonardWSH | 22 | 22:07 | 1:00 | 2:21 | 2 | 4 |
 Matt RoyWSH | 23 | 21:49 | 0:57 | 1:35 | 2 | 3 |
 Wyatt JohnstonDAL | 25 | 21:49 | 0:52 | 2:06 | 7 | 3 |
 Rasmus SandinWSH | 19 | 21:19 | 1:07 | 1:53 | 1 | 2 |
 Dylan StromeWSH | 22 | 20:50 | 0:57 | 2:41 | 5 | 3 |
 Connor McMichaelWSH | 26 | 20:40 | 0:48 | 2:07 | 2 | 4 |
 Mikko RantanenDAL | 25 | 20:37 | 0:49 | 2:06 | 6 | 1 |
 Justin SourdifWSH | 25 | 19:45 | 0:47 | 1:37 | 1 | 3 |
 Alex OvechkinWSH | 22 | 19:43 | 0:54 | 2:09 | 2 | 0 |
 Martin FehérváryWSH | 23 | 18:31 | 0:48 | 1:51 | 1 | 2 |
 Sam SteelDAL | 23 | 18:16 | 0:48 | 1:24 | 5 | 0 |
 Jason RobertsonDAL | 20 | 18:08 | 0:54 | 2:54 | 2 | 2 |
 Anthony BeauvillierWSH | 17 | 17:45 | 1:03 | 2:02 | 2 | 4 |
 Roope HintzDAL | 20 | 17:13 | 0:52 | 2:29 | 1 | 2 |
 Nils LundkvistDAL | 19 | 15:36 | 0:49 | 1:19 | 3 | 0 |
 Ilya LyubushkinDAL | 21 | 15:14 | 0:44 | 1:38 | 2 | 3 |
 Mavrik BourqueDAL | 18 | 14:36 | 0:49 | 1:14 | 2 | 2 |
 Ethen FrankWSH | 19 | 13:44 | 0:43 | 1:37 | 0 | 1 |
 Matt DucheneDAL | 19 | 13:40 | 0:43 | 1:21 | 2 | 2 |
 Nic DowdWSH | 17 | 12:55 | 0:46 | 1:18 | 0 | 2 |
 Colin BlackwellDAL | 15 | 11:18 | 0:45 | 1:17 | 1 | 0 |
 Radek FaksaDAL | 13 | 10:47 | 0:50 | 1:22 | 1 | 3 |
 Justin HryckowianDAL | 15 | 10:36 | 0:42 | 1:12 | 2 | 1 |
 Oskar BäckDAL | 14 | 10:19 | 0:44 | 1:06 | 1 | 3 |
 Kyle CapobiancoDAL | 15 | 10:14 | 0:41 | 1:14 | 3 | 0 |
 Nathan BastianDAL | 12 | 8:35 | 0:43 | 1:07 | 1 | 2 |
 Brandon DuhaimeWSH | 14 | 8:09 | 0:35 | 1:04 | 0 | 2 |
 Sonny MilanoWSH | 11 | 7:59 | 0:44 | 1:14 | 0 | 1 |
 Hendrix LapierreWSH | 9 | 6:53 | 0:46 | 1:09 | 0 | 1 |
 Dylan McIlrathWSH | 9 | 6:08 | 0:41 | 1:31 | 0 | 0 |
 Brett LeasonWSH | 8 | 5:34 | 0:42 | 1:12 | 0 | 1 |