Thu, Jan 29, 2026·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Washington Capitals 4, Detroit Red Wings 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 17 | 08 | 25 | 03 | 3 | 423 |
| DET | 03 | 18 | 29 | 01 | 2 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:27WSHNic DowdAssists: Connor McMichael, Jakob Chychrun · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 9:52DETBen ChiarotAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Patrick Kane · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 9:36WSHDylan StromeAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Jakob Chychrun · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 14:44WSHDeclan ChisholmAssists: Jakob Chychrun, Dylan Strome · Deflected, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 18:20DETAlex DeBrincatAssists: Dylan Larkin, Andrew Copp · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 19:07DETAlex DeBrincatAssists: Moritz Seider · Wrist, 0.00 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. DET Lucas Raymond scored
- 2. WSH Dylan Strome scored
- 3. DET Patrick Kane scored
- 4. WSH Ryan Leonard scored
- 5. DET Dylan Larkin stopped
- 6. WSH Nic Dowd scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:06WSHJohn Carlson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 17:58WSHTrevor van Riemsdyk: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:45WSHCharlie Lindgren: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:12DETBen Chiarot: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 9:36DETElmer Soderblom: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 11:52WSHAlex Ovechkin: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Compher won the faceoff against Dowd
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Strome – Beauvillier9:03
xG 0.58–0.21 (73%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Duhaime – Lapierre – Frank5:04
xG 0.14–0.06 (71%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Wilson – Protas – Sourdif9:57
xG 0.28–0.20 (58%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Dowd – McMichael – Leonard8:38
xG 0.24–0.28 (46%)attempts 7–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Sandin3:46
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Chychrun – Chisholm2:09
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Fehérváry2:39
xG 0.16–0.05 (78%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCompher – Appleton – Finnie5:42
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Larkin – Raymond – Kasper10:23
xG 0.36–0.23 (61%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Kane – Copp – DeBrincat9:30
xG 0.38–0.39 (49%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Rasmussen – Soderblom5:15
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeider – Johansson2:05
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Chiarot2:38
xG 0.16–0.03 (85%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Bernard-Docker – Seider15:44
xG 0.29–0.24 (54%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).