Thu, Jan 29, 2026·Benchmark International Arena, Tampa
Winnipeg Jets 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 012 | 18 | 04 | 124 |
| TBL | 110 | 211 | 116 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:58TBLDominic JamesAssists: Darren Raddysh, J.J. Moser · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 1:37TBLDarren RaddyshGWGAssists: Yanni Gourde, Zemgus Girgensons · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 12:25WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Dylan Samberg, Mark Scheifele · Tip-in, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 15:17TBLYanni GourdeAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Darren Raddysh · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 18:52TBLNikita KucherovENAssists: Yanni Gourde, Zemgus Girgensons · Wrist, 0.76 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:27TBLJ.J. Moser: Holding2 min
- P2 2:17WPGDylan DeMelo: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:41TBLJack Finley: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 9:25TBLAnthony Cirelli: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:25WPGCole Perfetti: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against James
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Connor – Vilardi11:56
xG 0.53–0.38 (59%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Pearson – Barron – Koepke5:31
xG 0.22–0.11 (68%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Iafallo2:56
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Toews – Pearson – Koepke2:14
xG 0.08–0.29 (20%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- DeMelo – Morrissey16:18
xG 0.65–0.66 (50%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
- Morrissey – Stanley2:27
xG 0.08–0.09 (45%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Schenn – Stanley8:17
xG 0.12–0.49 (20%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGuentzel – Goncalves – James8:56
xG 0.87–0.03 (96%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0
- Guentzel – Cirelli – Hagel2:22
xG 0.30–0.05 (86%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Bjorkstrand – Paul – Finley8:41
xG 0.27–0.27 (50%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Cirelli – Hagel8:40
xG 0.26–0.30 (47%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCrozier – Carlile13:23
xG 0.79–0.34 (70%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Raddysh – Moser17:07
xG 1.14–0.87 (57%)attempts 19–15goals 2–1
- McDonagh – Cernak13:04
xG 0.32–0.23 (58%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).