Mon, Feb 2, 2026·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Calgary Flames 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 13 | 211 | 18 | 422 |
| CGY | 07 | 210 | 013 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:35TORWilliam NylanderAssists: John Tavares · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 7:17TORMatias MaccelliAssists: William Nylander · Snap, 0.18 xG2–0
- P2 9:10TORTroy StecherGWGAssists: William Nylander, Auston Matthews · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–0
- P2 13:15CGYNazem KadriAssists: Joel Farabee, Joel Hanley · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–1
- P2 15:46CGYJoel FarabeeAssists: Nazem Kadri, MacKenzie Weegar · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 19:35TORBobby McMannENAssists: Scott Laughton, Brandon Carlo · Wrist, 0.70 xG4–2
Penalties (3)
- P2 8:11TORJoseph Woll: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 8:11CGYMikael Backlund: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:46TORMatthew Knies: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Frost
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Nylander – Maccelli13:51
xG 0.79–0.41 (66%)attempts 17–9goals 2–2
- Jarnkrok – Laughton – Lorentz7:23
xG 0.12–0.11 (54%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Roy – Robertson – Knies9:28
xG 0.25–0.43 (36%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Domi – Matthews – McMann12:00
xG 0.14–0.73 (16%)attempts 8–21goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Myers – Benoit14:29
xG 0.28–0.24 (54%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Stecher13:19
xG 0.53–0.69 (44%)attempts 13–21goals 1–1
- McCabe – Carlo16:33
xG 0.22–0.77 (22%)attempts 13–20goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Sharangovich – Coronato12:52
xG 0.88–0.22 (80%)attempts 23–11goals 0–0
- Kadri – Farabee – Zary10:16
xG 0.51–0.25 (68%)attempts 16–10goals 2–0
- Kadri – Farabee – Klapka2:06
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Lomberg – Pospisil – Klapka6:19
xG 0.01–0.26 (2%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWhitecloud – Bahl17:30
xG 0.93–0.17 (84%)attempts 26–8goals 0–0
- Hanley – Parekh12:56
xG 0.26–0.39 (40%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Weegar – Kuznetsov14:15
xG 0.49–0.69 (41%)attempts 13–13goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).