Sat, Mar 7, 2026·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Calgary Flames 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 19 | 07 | 313 | 429 |
| CGY | 06 | 313 | 26 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:44CARSeth JarvisAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 0:19CGYRyan StromeAssists: Olli Maatta, Martin Pospisil · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 4:11CGYJoel FarabeeAssists: Morgan Frost, Blake Coleman · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 7:06CGYMorgan FrostPPAssists: Zayne Parekh, Ryan Strome · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 2:24CGYBlake ColemanAssists: Joel Farabee · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–4
- P3 4:41CARSean WalkerAssists: Taylor Hall, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 5:43CARAlexander NikishinPPAssists: Sebastian Aho, Seth Jarvis · Slap, 0.05 xG3–4
- P3 17:42CGYJoel FarabeeGWGAssists: Morgan Frost · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–5
- P3 19:48CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: K'Andre Miller, Seth Jarvis · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:44CARK'Andre Miller: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:06CGYAdam Klapka: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:30CARK'Andre Miller: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:00CARMike Reilly: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:01CGYBrayden Pachal: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:01CARSebastian Aho: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:15CGYBrayden Pachal: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestAho – Svechnikov – Jarvis6:37
xG 0.42–0.05 (90%)attempts 12–2goals 1–0
- Jankowski – Martinook – Carrier3:09
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Carrier – Robinson5:11
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Staal – Ehlers – Jarvis4:30
xG 0.36–0.14 (71%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Nikishin8:30
xG 0.33–0.14 (70%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Slavin – Chatfield16:26
xG 0.77–0.69 (53%)attempts 15–16goals 1–1
- Walker – Miller18:03
xG 1.10–1.03 (52%)attempts 20–15goals 1–3
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestColeman – Frost – Farabee10:09
xG 0.78–0.31 (72%)attempts 13–8goals 2–1
- Strome – Pospisil – Zary9:22
xG 0.66–0.62 (51%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Lomberg – Beecher – Klapka8:48
xG 0.08–0.32 (21%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Backlund – Sharangovich – Coronato9:54
xG 0.17–0.85 (16%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Pachal11:24
xG 0.73–0.21 (77%)attempts 8–9goals 2–0
- Pachal – Kuznetsov2:32
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Maatta – Kuznetsov2:58
xG 0.40–0.21 (66%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).