Mon, Mar 9, 2026·Capital One Arena, Washington
Calgary Flames 3, Washington Capitals 7
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 07 | 314 | 05 | 326 |
| WSH | 38 | 08 | 413 | 729 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:46WSHHendrix LapierreAssists: Martin Fehérváry, Declan Chisholm · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 9:13WSHTom WilsonAssists: Aliaksei Protas, Dylan Strome · Snap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P1 17:43WSHConnor McMichaelAssists: Justin Sourdif, Anthony Beauvillier · Snap, 0.14 xG0–3
- P2 16:08CGYMatvei GridinAssists: Olli Maatta, Ryan Strome · Snap, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 17:39CGYBlake ColemanSHAssists: Mikael Backlund, Yan Kuznetsov · Snap, 0.22 xG2–3
- P2 18:55CGYYegor SharangovichSHAssists: Joel Farabee · Snap, 0.21 xG3–3
- P3 10:52WSHConnor McMichaelPPGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.14 xG3–4
- P3 11:15WSHJustin SourdifUnassisted · Snap, 0.05 xG3–5
- P3 17:14WSHEthen FrankENAssists: Brandon Duhaime, Hendrix Lapierre · Snap, 0.74 xG3–6
- P3 19:44WSHRyan LeonardAssists: Justin Sourdif · Backhand, 0.18 xG3–7
Penalties (3)
- P1 4:53CGYZayne Parekh: Interference2 min
- P2 17:32CGYZayne Parekh: Interference2 min
- P3 9:22CGYKevin Bahl: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Frost won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Zary – Gridin11:00
xG 0.80–0.60 (57%)attempts 9–9goals 1–2
- Coleman – Frost – Farabee12:17
xG 0.32–0.30 (52%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Lomberg – Sharangovich – Klapka5:26
xG 0.20–0.25 (44%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Backlund – Olofsson – Coronato10:03
xG 0.31–0.57 (35%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Pachal14:53
xG 0.93–0.72 (56%)attempts 11–16goals 1–1
- Hanley – Parekh14:22
xG 0.31–0.66 (32%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Bahl – Kuznetsov15:19
xG 0.57–1.13 (34%)attempts 21–14goals 0–3
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestDubois – McMichael – Leonard9:45
xG 0.64–0.34 (65%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Duhaime – Lapierre – Frank8:38
xG 0.47–0.23 (67%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Beauvillier – Sourdif10:04
xG 0.29–0.27 (52%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Wilson – Strome – Protas11:52
xG 0.52–0.76 (41%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Chychrun14:29
xG 0.75–0.43 (64%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Fehérváry – Chisholm11:51
xG 0.82–0.81 (50%)attempts 11–15goals 2–1
- Roy – Fehérváry2:19
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).