Tue, Mar 10, 2026·Centre Bell, Montreal
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 93% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 05 | 111 | 02 | 118 |
| MTL | 218 | 06 | 19 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:46MTLOliver KapanenAssists: Alex Newhook, Ivan Demidov · Snap, 0.28 xG0–1
- P1 14:41MTLPhillip DanaultGWGAssists: Kaiden Guhle, Lane Hutson · Snap, 0.27 xG0–2
- P2 14:33TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Easton Cowan · Snap, 0.17 xG1–2
- P3 19:32MTLJake EvansENAssists: Mike Matheson · Wrist, 0.83 xG1–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 19:35TORJake McCabe: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:35MTLBrendan Gallagher: Interference2 min
- P1 19:35TORJake McCabe: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:35MTLBrendan Gallagher: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:35MTLArber Xhekaj: Interference2 min
- P2 11:55MTLLane Hutson: Holding2 min
- P3 11:17TORMatthew Knies: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:26TOROliver Ekman-Larsson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestNylander – Matthews – Cowan4:44
xG 0.54–0.17 (76%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Groulx – Robertson – Maccelli4:22
xG 0.24–0.07 (78%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Cowan2:34
xG 0.14–0.05 (75%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Groulx – Robertson – Cowan4:11
xG 0.04–0.21 (16%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ekman-Larsson – Benoit2:42
xG 0.11–0.09 (54%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – McCabe14:13
xG 0.50–1.18 (30%)attempts 8–16goals 1–1
- Stecher – Benoit11:18
xG 0.31–1.09 (22%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestNewhook – Kapanen – Demidov9:02
xG 0.82–0.27 (75%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Gallagher – Danault – Anderson7:29
xG 0.75–0.21 (78%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Evans – Dach – Bolduc8:49
xG 0.80–0.29 (73%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský7:04
xG 0.70–0.32 (69%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGuhle – Hutson13:21
xG 1.34–0.41 (77%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Matheson – Dobson12:36
xG 1.28–0.70 (65%)attempts 18–13goals 0–1
- Dobson – Hutson3:25
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 93% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).