Tue, Mar 17, 2026·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Tampa Bay Lightning 6, Seattle Kraken 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 29 | 16 | 311 | 626 |
| SEA | 04 | 29 | 05 | 218 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:45TBLGage GoncalvesAssists: Brayden Point, Jake Guentzel · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 18:49TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Brandon Hagel · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–0
- P2 0:57TBLNikita KucherovGWGAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Brandon Hagel · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–0
- P2 1:07SEABobby McMannAssists: Matty Beniers · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 9:46SEAJared McCannAssists: Jordan Eberle, Philipp Grubauer · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–2
- P3 4:35TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brandon Hagel · Snap, 0.27 xG4–2
- P3 16:54TBLBrandon HagelPPAssists: Gage Goncalves, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.17 xG5–2
- P3 17:16TBLNikita KucherovENAssists: Anthony Cirelli · Wrist, 0.78 xG6–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:42SEAShane Wright: Holding2 min
- P1 14:35SEARyker Evans: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:35TBLCorey Perry: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:42TBLDarren Raddysh: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:28TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:41TBLYanni Gourde: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:41SEABen Meyers: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:06SEABobby McMann: Boarding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Meyers won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Bjorkstrand – Paul8:46
xG 0.42–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Cirelli – Hagel9:09
xG 0.74–0.34 (69%)attempts 16–8goals 2–1
- Guentzel – Point – Goncalves10:19
xG 0.30–0.16 (65%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Gourde – Girgensons – Holmberg8:07
xG 0.01–0.16 (6%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRaddysh – Moser15:26
xG 0.58–0.20 (74%)attempts 19–8goals 2–1
- McDonagh – D'Astous15:36
xG 0.65–0.38 (63%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Hedman – Cernak11:11
xG 0.41–0.22 (65%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- Stephenson – Gaudreau – McCann8:21
xG 0.13–0.14 (48%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Winterton – Melanson – Meyers5:59
xG 0.19–0.21 (48%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Kakko – Wright – Catton9:38
xG 0.10–0.55 (15%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
- Eberle – McMann – Beniers11:49
xG 0.19–0.65 (23%)attempts 7–14goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Evans12:44
xG 0.16–0.01 (94%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Larsson – Dunn13:16
xG 0.32–0.57 (36%)attempts 9–18goals 1–1
- Montour – Lindgren13:44
xG 0.25–0.83 (23%)attempts 7–15goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).