Sun, Mar 22, 2026·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Carolina Hurricanes 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 93% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 19 | 310 | 17 | 526 |
| PIT | 05 | 06 | 18 | 119 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:47CARSebastian AhoPPAssists: Seth Jarvis · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 6:24CARNikolaj EhlersPPGWGAssists: Seth Jarvis, Alexander Nikishin · Slap, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 9:15CARJalen ChatfieldAssists: Eric Robinson · Slap, 0.01 xG3–0
- P2 17:20CARSeth JarvisPPAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Andrei Svechnikov · Snap, 0.26 xG4–0
- P3 14:56PITEgor ChinakhovAssists: Bryan Rust, Sidney Crosby · Snap, 0.25 xG4–1
- P3 18:56CARMark JankowskiENAssists: Jackson Blake, Logan Stankoven · Wrist, 0.73 xG5–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:25PITRyan Graves: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 5:24PITSamuel Girard: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:40CARMike Reilly: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:39PITAnthony Mantha: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 16:39PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:39CARTaylor Hall: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 7:28PITErik Karlsson: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:24CARJordan Martinook: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 9:24PITParker Wotherspoon: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:40PITElmer Soderblom: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:22CARMike Reilly: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dewar won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Martinook – Ehlers9:49
xG 0.29–0.09 (77%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Hall – Stankoven – Blake11:58
xG 0.46–0.52 (47%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Aho – Svechnikov – Jarvis10:08
xG 0.58–0.89 (39%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Carrier – Robinson8:23
xG 0.07–0.48 (13%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Walker – Miller17:44
xG 0.76–0.77 (50%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Slavin – Chatfield15:21
xG 0.62–0.65 (49%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Reilly – Nikishin10:17
xG 0.31–0.40 (43%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMantha – Brazeau – Kindel7:39
xG 0.26–0.15 (64%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Rakell11:44
xG 0.54–0.50 (52%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Malkin – Novak – Chinakhov9:40
xG 0.39–0.44 (47%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Acciari – Dewar – Soderblom8:54
xG 0.25–0.44 (36%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClifton – Graves11:55
xG 0.55–0.30 (64%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Letang – Karlsson2:09
xG 0.06–0.03 (68%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Wotherspoon14:20
xG 0.54–0.51 (51%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 93% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).