Sun, Mar 22, 2026·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Carolina Hurricanes 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 93% of the time.
91%
PIT winsCAR wins
Carolina Hurricanes
Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 24:36 | 0.03 | 41.3% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:50 | 0.01 | 49.8% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 20:46 | 0.02 | 45.0% | 0.0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 19:43 | 0.44 | 42.9% | +12.9 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19:36 | 0.02 | 39.0% | +8.8 | |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 18:03 | 0.78 | 40.6% | +30.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 17:17 | 2.13 | 44.6% | +2.6 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16:32 | 0.91 | 53.5% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16:20 | 0.58 | 44.3% | 0.0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 16:15 | 0.25 | 77.5% | +17.1 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16:15 | 0.02 | 45.5% | +14.5 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 16:04 | 0.00 | 44.3% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:25 | 0.14 | 66.7% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:07 | 0.15 | 57.8% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:39 | 0.21 | 27.0% | +8.8 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11:09 | 0.04 | 36.4% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 11:00 | 0.14 | 22.7% | 0.0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 10:53 | 0.76 | 13.0% | 0.0 |
| W | 19 | 18 | 1 | .947 | 2.77 | +1.8 | 59:52 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 22:26 | 0.00 | 38.8% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 2 | 21:47 | 0.06 | 49.8% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 20:53 | 0.00 | 55.9% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 20:01 | 0.13 | 50.4% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:35 | 0.00 | 53.7% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:13 | 0.28 | 67.7% | +0.3 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 19:07 | 0.24 | 63.3% | +0.3 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:51 | 0.02 | 79.4% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 0 | 16:05 | 0.00 | 46.2% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:37 | 0.38 | 68.6% | 0.0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15:16 | 0.42 | 63.1% | +0.3 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:33 | 0.00 | 36.2% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14:07 | 0.13 | 36.2% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 1 | 13:53 | 0.26 | 47.4% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 12:45 | 0.12 | 64.3% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:47 | 0.00 | 61.1% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:05 | 0.63 | 80.5% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10:02 | 0.10 | 34.7% | 0.0 |
| L | 25 | 21 | 4 | .840 | 3.67 | −0.3 | 56:54 |