Sat, Mar 28, 2026·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Philadelphia Flyers 5, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 18 | 29 | 29 | 526 |
| DET | 07 | 011 | 317 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:07PHIOwen TippettAssists: Trevor Zegras · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 12:22PHIOwen TippettAssists: Denver Barkey, Jamie Drysdale · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 16:08PHINoah CatesPPAssists: Matvei Michkov, Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–0
- P3 7:19PHIOwen TippettPPGWGAssists: Jamie Drysdale, Travis Konecny · Snap, 0.13 xG4–0
- P3 13:43DETMason AppletonAssists: Justin Faulk · Snap, 0.10 xG4–1
- P3 15:10DETAlex DeBrincatAssists: Patrick Kane, Moritz Seider · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 16:14DETLucas RaymondAssists: Moritz Seider, Patrick Kane · Snap, 0.05 xG4–3
- P3 17:56PHISean CouturierENAssists: Owen Tippett · Wrist, 0.51 xG5–3
Penalties (7)
- P2 7:12PHIJamie Drysdale: Interference2 min
- P2 15:48DETDylan Larkin: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:19PHIEmil Andrae: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:05DETMason Appleton: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 8:21PHIMatvei Michkov: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:21DETMarco Kasper: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:49DETDavid Perron: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dvorak won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCouturier – Glendening – Hathaway9:16
xG 0.62–0.02 (97%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Tippett – Zegras – Barkey10:21
xG 0.71–0.28 (72%)attempts 11–6goals 2–0
- Dvorak – Konecny – Bump11:05
xG 0.42–0.42 (50%)attempts 9–18goals 0–1
- Grundstrom – Cates – Michkov9:25
xG 0.12–0.22 (34%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestYork – Drysdale13:36
xG 1.01–0.16 (86%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Seeler – Andrae12:18
xG 0.40–0.14 (74%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Sanheim17:27
xG 0.68–0.71 (49%)attempts 12–22goals 1–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Appleton – Shine7:04
xG 0.27–0.18 (59%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Kane – Copp – DeBrincat12:34
xG 0.42–0.44 (49%)attempts 17–8goals 1–1
- Mazur – Kasper – Finnie8:01
xG 0.10–0.25 (29%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Compher – Kasper – Finnie2:14
xG 0.00–0.25 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Seider – Edvinsson16:56
xG 0.70–0.69 (50%)attempts 20–12goals 1–2
- Chiarot – Faulk14:30
xG 0.25–0.58 (30%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Bernard-Docker – Johansson12:11
xG 0.06–0.77 (7%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).