Tue, Mar 31, 2026·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
New York Islanders 3, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 06 | 19 | 213 | 328 |
| BUF | 112 | 07 | 314 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:19BUFJack QuinnPPAssists: Josh Norris · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 17:57NYICalum RitchiePPAssists: Brayden Schenn, Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P3 2:40BUFTage ThompsonPPAssists: Josh Norris, Jack Quinn · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 13:39NYIAnders LeeAssists: Bo Horvat, Matthew Schaefer · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- P3 16:59BUFPeyton KrebsAssists: Alex Tuch, Tage Thompson · Snap, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 18:17BUFBowen ByramENGWGAssists: Mattias Samuelsson · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–4
- P3 19:59NYIBrayden SchennAssists: Mathew Barzal, Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:41NYICarson Soucy: High sticking2 min
- P1 1:31BUFJosh Norris: Interference2 min
- P1 13:58NYIAdam Pelech: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:18NYICasey Cizikas: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:34BUFOwen Power: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
- P2 17:41BUFMattias Samuelsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 0:01NYIAnders Lee: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 0:01BUFSam Carrick: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:28NYICarson Soucy: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:45BUFJosh Norris: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:45NYIScott Mayfield: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:45BUFJosh Norris: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Palat – Pageau – Ritchie9:07
xG 0.42–0.41 (51%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Cizikas – MacLean – Gatcomb9:08
xG 0.20–0.19 (51%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Lee – Horvat – Heineman8:48
xG 0.08–0.37 (18%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Schenn – Duclair – Barzal10:17
xG 0.11–0.94 (10%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Pelech – Pulock3:38
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Pelech – Schaefer2:00
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Boqvist – Schaefer2:43
xG 0.08–0.25 (24%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestTuch – Thompson – Krebs13:34
xG 0.84–0.22 (79%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Zucker – McLeod – Quinn10:24
xG 0.79–0.23 (78%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Norris – Doan – Benson8:28
xG 0.61–0.19 (77%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Carrick – Greenway – Malenstyn4:56
xG 0.27–0.06 (81%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Dahlin12:31
xG 1.19–0.18 (87%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Byram – Power13:20
xG 0.54–0.40 (57%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Stanley – Metsa10:41
xG 0.40–0.28 (59%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).