Sat, Apr 4, 2026·Capital One Arena, Washington
Buffalo Sabres 2, Washington Capitals 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 213 | 015 | 011 | 239 |
| WSH | 311 | 17 | 210 | 628 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:15WSHJakob ChychrunAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 3:35WSHDylan StromeAssists: Aliaksei Protas, Alex Ovechkin · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–2
- P1 5:52WSHConnor McMichaelGWGAssists: Jakob Chychrun, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Snap, 0.12 xG0–3
- P1 6:30BUFRasmus DahlinAssists: Josh Norris, Alex Tuch · Snap, 0.11 xG1–3
- P1 12:15BUFBeck MalenstynAssists: Jordan Greenway, Rasmus Dahlin · Snap, 0.21 xG2–3
- P2 6:06WSHAliaksei ProtasUnassisted · Snap, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 6:26WSHRyan LeonardAssists: Cole Hutson, Justin Sourdif · Snap, 0.05 xG2–5
- P3 8:55WSHTom WilsonSHAssists: Connor McMichael · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–6
Penalties (9)
- P2 4:21BUFZach Benson: Interference2 min
- P2 5:08WSHRyan Leonard: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:58WSHDylan Strome: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:22WSHConnor McMichael: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:42BUFMattias Samuelsson: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:13WSHTrevor van Riemsdyk: Holding2 min
- P3 8:32WSHCole Hutson: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:15WSHMartin Fehérváry: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:15BUFZach Benson: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Krebs – Doan6:09
xG 0.56–0.19 (74%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- McLeod – Quinn – Benson6:43
xG 0.47–0.26 (64%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Greenway – Malenstyn – Kozak7:11
xG 0.26–0.12 (69%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Zucker – Tuch – Norris6:53
xG 0.16–0.16 (50%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Dahlin10:55
xG 0.97–0.46 (68%)attempts 13–15goals 2–0
- Stanley – Metsa11:16
xG 0.58–0.41 (58%)attempts 11–7goals 0–2
- Dahlin – Byram4:15
xG 0.16–0.02 (88%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Dubois – McMichael7:35
xG 0.41–0.17 (70%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Beauvillier – Sourdif – Leonard8:20
xG 0.08–0.33 (19%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Duhaime – Lapierre – Frank8:20
xG 0.09–0.45 (17%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Strome – Protas10:16
xG 0.42–0.88 (33%)attempts 10–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestRoy – Chychrun2:58
xG 0.30–0.08 (78%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Fehérváry – Sandin8:35
xG 0.27–0.20 (58%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Sandin – Hutson3:24
xG 0.04–0.01 (79%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).