Tue, Apr 7, 2026·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Ottawa Senators 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 011 | 17 | 112 | 230 |
| OTT | 07 | 112 | 513 | 632 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 15:46OTTJordan SpenceAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 18:23TBLNick PaulAssists: Corey Perry, Nikita Kucherov · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–1
- P3 2:45OTTFabian ZetterlundAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Cameron Crotty · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 4:39OTTJake SandersonGWGAssists: Tim Stützle, Brady Tkachuk · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 10:35TBLCorey PerryAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Nick Paul · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 12:51OTTTim StützlePPAssists: Dylan Cozens, Drake Batherson · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–4
- P3 13:04OTTJake SandersonPPAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Drake Batherson · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–5
- P3 16:41OTTShane PintoENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.79 xG2–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:49OTTTim Stützle: Slashing2 min
- P1 3:49TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous: Cross checking2 min
- P1 6:33TBLConor Geekie: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:15OTTTim Stützle: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:32TBLYanni Gourde: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 12:51TBLCorey Perry: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min · PPG
- P3 15:40OTTFabian Zetterlund: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Cozens
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Guentzel – Point10:45
xG 0.57–0.23 (71%)attempts 23–3goals 0–0
- Perry – Paul – Goncalves7:47
xG 0.27–0.22 (54%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Pelletier – Duke – Geekie6:42
xG 0.26–0.57 (31%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Gourde – Girgensons – Bjorkstrand11:05
xG 0.35–0.80 (30%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Cernak – D'Astous2:20
xG 0.04–0.07 (34%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- D'Astous – Lilleberg14:54
xG 0.27–0.52 (34%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Raddysh – Moser15:09
xG 0.71–1.00 (42%)attempts 21–19goals 0–2
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestCousins – Amadio – Pinto8:49
xG 0.64–0.17 (79%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Tkachuk – Cozens – Greig10:19
xG 0.69–0.29 (70%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Giroux – Batherson – Stützle9:37
xG 0.44–0.15 (74%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Eller – Foegele – Zetterlund6:06
xG 0.25–0.33 (43%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpence – Sanderson4:31
xG 0.49–0.13 (79%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Crotty – Thomson10:37
xG 0.76–0.46 (62%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
- Spence – Matinpalo12:30
xG 0.38–0.34 (53%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).