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Ice Lab

Tue, Apr 7, 2026·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa

Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Ottawa Senators 6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 88% of the time.

OTT winsTBL wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:18Shot by Girgensons, saved by Ullmark
  3. P1 1:09Shot by Sanderson, saved by Johansson
  4. P1 1:24Shot by Stützle, saved by Johansson
  5. P1 3:49Stützle: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Giroux, Thomson, Pinto, Sanderson, Stützle · TBL D'Astous, Pelletier, Duke, Lilleberg, Geekie

  6. P1 3:49D'Astous: Cross checking (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Giroux, Thomson, Pinto, Sanderson, Stützle · TBL D'Astous, Pelletier, Duke, Lilleberg, Geekie

  7. P1 4:05Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Johansson4v4
  8. P1 6:20Shot by Duke, saved by Ullmark
  9. P1 6:33Geekie: Cross checking (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Giroux, Crotty, Batherson, Thomson, Stützle · TBL McDonagh, Cernak, Pelletier, Duke, Geekie

  10. P1 7:56Shot by Cozens, saved by Johansson5v4
  11. P1 8:40Shot by Gourde, saved by Ullmark
  12. P1 9:20Shot by Kucherov, saved by Ullmark
  13. P1 9:32Shot by Guentzel, saved by Ullmark
  14. P1 9:35Shot by Raddysh, saved by Ullmark
  15. P1 9:37Shot by Paul, saved by Ullmark
  16. P1 9:40Shot by Moser, saved by Ullmark
  17. P1 10:06Shot by Raddysh, saved by Ullmark
  18. P1 10:14Shot by Kucherov, saved by Ullmark
  19. P1 10:34Shot by Point, saved by Ullmark
  20. P1 15:23Shot by Cousins, saved by Johansson
  21. P1 15:37Shot by Amadio, saved by Johansson
  22. P1 17:15Shot by Matinpalo, saved by Johansson
  23. P1 0:00Period end
  24. P2 0:00Period start
  25. P2 2:58Shot by Cernak, saved by Ullmark
  26. P2 3:38Shot by Point, saved by Ullmark
  27. P2 5:04Shot by Stützle, saved by Johansson
  28. P2 5:15Stützle: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Giroux, Batherson, Spence, Stützle, Matinpalo · TBL Perry, McDonagh, Paul, Cernak, Goncalves

  29. P2 7:41Shot by Bjorkstrand, saved by Ullmark
  30. P2 7:46Shot by D'Astous, saved by Ullmark
  31. P2 8:03Shot by Bjorkstrand, saved by Ullmark
  32. P2 8:21Shot by Eller, saved by Johansson
  33. P2 9:36Shot by Crotty, saved by Johansson
  34. P2 10:45Shot by Moser, saved by Ullmark
  35. P2 13:14Shot by Giroux, saved by Johansson
  36. P2 14:41Shot by Cozens, saved by Johansson
  37. P2 14:43Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Johansson
  38. P2 14:51Shot by Sanderson, saved by Johansson
  39. P2 15:46Goal by Spence (Tkachuk, Stützle)+28 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Batherson, Tkachuk, Spence, Sanderson, Stützle · TBL Gourde, Guentzel, Bjorkstrand, Raddysh, Moser

  40. P2 16:18Shot by Pinto, saved by Johansson
  41. P2 18:23Goal by Paul (Perry, Kucherov)+29 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Batherson, Tkachuk, Pinto, Sanderson, Zub · TBL Perry, Kucherov, Paul, Moser, Lilleberg

  42. P2 18:38Shot by Sanderson, saved by Johansson
  43. P2 19:17Shot by Stützle, saved by Johansson
  44. P2 19:58Shot by Giroux, saved by Johansson
  45. P2 0:00Period end
  46. P3 0:00Period start
  47. P3 1:29Shot by Moser, saved by Ullmark
  48. P3 1:30Shot by Point, saved by Ullmark
  49. P3 1:58Shot by Point, saved by Ullmark
  50. P3 2:18Shot by Greig, saved by Johansson
  51. P3 2:40Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Johansson
  52. P3 2:45Goal by Zetterlund (Tkachuk, Crotty)+32 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Eller, Crotty, Zetterlund, Tkachuk, Thomson · TBL McDonagh, Cernak, Pelletier, Duke, Geekie

  53. P3 3:34Shot by Matinpalo, saved by Johansson
  54. P3 3:48Shot by Spence, saved by Johansson
  55. P3 4:39Goal by Sanderson (Stützle, Tkachuk)+13 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Cousins, Amadio, Pinto, Sanderson, Zub · TBL Perry, Kucherov, Paul, Raddysh, Moser

  56. P3 4:48Shot by Kucherov, saved by Ullmark
  57. P3 5:02Shot by Lilleberg, saved by Ullmark
  58. P3 5:31Shot by Guentzel, saved by Ullmark
  59. P3 6:35Shot by Guentzel, saved by Ullmark
  60. P3 9:48Shot by Giroux, saved by Johansson
  61. P3 10:35Goal by Perry (McDonagh, Paul)+11 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Crotty, Zetterlund, Batherson, Thomson, Stützle · TBL Perry, McDonagh, Paul, Cernak, Goncalves

  62. P3 10:54Shot by Pelletier, saved by Ullmark
  63. P3 10:59Shot by Raddysh, saved by Ullmark
  64. P3 12:32Gourde: Holding the stick (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Amadio, Crotty, Batherson, Thomson, Stützle · TBL McDonagh, Gourde, Girgensons, Bjorkstrand, Cernak

  65. P3 12:49Shot by Cozens, saved by Johansson5v4
  66. P3 12:51Goal by Stützle (Cozens, Batherson)5v4+11 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Batherson, Tkachuk, Cozens, Sanderson, Stützle · TBL McDonagh, Guentzel, Paul, Cernak

  67. P3 12:51Perry: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Batherson, Tkachuk, Cozens, Sanderson, Stützle · TBL McDonagh, Guentzel, Paul, Cernak

  68. P3 13:04Goal by Sanderson (Tkachuk, Batherson)5v4+2 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Batherson, Tkachuk, Cozens, Sanderson, Stützle · TBL McDonagh, Gourde, Girgensons, Cernak

  69. P3 13:52Shot by Cozens, saved by Johansson
  70. P3 15:40Zetterlund: Too many men on the ice (2 min)5v6

    On ice: OTT Giroux, Cousins, Pinto, Sanderson, Zub · TBL Perry, McDonagh, Kucherov, Guentzel, Point, D'Astous

  71. P3 16:41Goal by Pinto, unassisted4v60 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Pinto, Greig, Sanderson, Zub · TBL Perry, Kucherov, Guentzel, Bjorkstrand, Point, Raddysh

  72. P3 17:37Shot by Goncalves, saved by Ullmark4v5
  73. P3 18:07Shot by Pelletier, saved by Ullmark
  74. P3 19:20Shot by Zetterlund, saved by Johansson
  75. P3 0:00Period end
  76. P3 0:00Final