Mon, Oct 5, 2026·Benchmark International Arena, Tampa
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 95% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 03 | 18 | 04 | 115 |
| TBL | 110 | 111 | 215 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:05TBLBrayden PointAssists: John Carlson, Nikita Kucherov · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 0:17TBLPontus HolmbergGWGAssists: Ilya Mikheyev, Zemgus Girgensons · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 7:22PHITyson FoersterAssists: Nick Seeler, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 17:00TBLIlya MikheyevAssists: Pontus Holmberg · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 19:53TBLBrandon HagelENAssists: Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.80 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:35PHIOwen Tippett: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:06PHITrevor Zegras: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:57TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:27TBLAnthony Cirelli: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:20PHISimon Benoit: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:20TBLJeffrey Viel: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:10PHIMatvei Michkov: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:33TBLBrandon Hagel: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Girgensons won the faceoff against Cates
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Dvorak – Konecny – Martone3:05
xG 0.18–0.24 (43%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Cates – Foerster – Martone6:09
xG 0.04–0.19 (15%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Couturier – Acciari – Grundstrom8:36
xG 0.21–0.39 (35%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Tippett – Zegras – Barkey7:38
xG 0.15–0.35 (30%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Jiricek9:31
xG 0.39–0.18 (69%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- York – Jiricek3:21
xG 0.08–0.04 (63%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
- Seeler – Sanheim6:29
xG 0.19–0.42 (31%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGuentzel – Cirelli – Hagel10:51
xG 1.39–0.36 (79%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Point – Goncalves9:26
xG 0.54–0.05 (92%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Kucherov – Viel – Geekie3:18
xG 0.30–0.05 (86%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Girgensons – Holmberg – Mikheyev8:37
xG 0.23–0.29 (44%)attempts 6–8goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Cernak7:41
xG 0.49–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Carlson – Moser11:29
xG 0.62–0.26 (71%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- McDonagh – Cernak8:57
xG 0.51–0.15 (77%)attempts 5–4goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 95% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).