Tue, Feb 28, 2012·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Florida Panthers 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 24 | 19 | 210 | 523 |
| TOR | 09 | 17 | 215 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:13FLAMarcel GocAssists: Wojtek Wolski · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 2:21FLAMike SantorelliAssists: Jack Skille, Erik Gudbranson · Snap, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 10:46TORPhil KesselPPAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Joffrey Lupul · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 13:54FLAMike SantorelliPPAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Brian Campbell · Backhand, 0.25 xG3–1
- P3 4:38FLAJason GarrisonPPGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–1
- P3 8:48TORNikolay KuleminAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Dion Phaneuf · Snap, 0.11 xG4–2
- P3 9:49FLAStephen WeissAssists: Sean Bergenheim · Wrist, 0.01 xG5–2
- P3 17:22TORJoffrey LupulPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Dion Phaneuf · Snap, 0.28 xG5–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 18:58FLAJohn Madden: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 3:43TORJoffrey Lupul: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:26FLASean Bergenheim: Interference2 min
- P2 9:32FLAStephen Weiss: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 12:36TORClarke MacArthur: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 0:11FLAJason Garrison: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:40TORJohn-Michael Liles: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 13:21TORDion Phaneuf: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:16FLAJason Garrison: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Goc
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestWolski – Santorelli – Matthias5:55
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Goc – Fleischmann – Wolski2:17
xG 0.06–0.02 (71%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
- Goc – Fleischmann – Skille6:47
xG 0.36–0.34 (52%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Weiss – Bergenheim10:29
xG 0.44–0.45 (49%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Jovanovski – Gudbranson10:21
xG 0.22–0.27 (46%)attempts 4–12goals 1–0
- Campbell – Garrison12:33
xG 0.60–0.65 (48%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Weaver – Ellerby16:34
xG 0.26–0.58 (31%)attempts 9–18goals 1–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin3:47
xG 0.30–0.02 (94%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Frattin8:16
xG 0.28–0.10 (73%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Connolly – Lombardi – Kulemin5:16
xG 0.20–0.13 (60%)attempts 10–1goals 0–1
- Steckel – Crabb – Brown4:25
xG 0.16–0.10 (61%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Gardiner3:04
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson10:00
xG 0.44–0.32 (58%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Schenn – Gardiner10:45
xG 0.49–0.42 (53%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).