Sun, Mar 13, 2022·Tim Hortons Field, HamiltonOutdoor game
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Buffalo Sabres 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 09 | 218 | 09 | 236 |
| BUF | 014 | 29 | 315 | 538 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:40TOROndrej KaseAssists: William Nylander, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–0
- P2 1:22BUFPeyton KrebsAssists: Vinnie Hinostroza, Robert Hagg · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 2:57TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 10:53BUFVinnie HinostrozaAssists: Tage Thompson, Mattias Samuelsson · Deflected, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 5:16BUFVinnie HinostrozaGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 13:49BUFPeyton KrebsAssists: Dylan Cozens, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.64 xG2–4
- P3 17:35BUFTage ThompsonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.75 xG2–5
Penalties (15)
- P1 18:04TORPierre Engvall: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:04BUFVinnie Hinostroza: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:04BUFHenri Jokiharju: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:53BUFJohn Hayden: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:35TORIlya Lyubushkin: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:38TORTimothy Liljegren: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:49TORTJ Brodie: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:55TORAuston Matthews: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:55BUFRasmus Dahlin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:41BUFKyle Okposo: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:17TORMichael Bunting: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:17TORMichael Bunting: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:17BUFTage Thompson: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:17BUFDylan Cozens: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:17TORIlya Mikheyev: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBunting – Marner – Matthews12:20
xG 1.10–0.73 (60%)attempts 20–13goals 0–2
- Engvall – Kampf – Mikheyev7:48
xG 0.28–0.24 (54%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Spezza – Simmonds – Kerfoot6:49
xG 0.26–0.30 (47%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Kase10:12
xG 0.60–1.29 (32%)attempts 15–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Lyubushkin6:27
xG 0.63–0.28 (70%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Liljegren – Sandin3:49
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Brodie – Holl13:08
xG 0.76–0.63 (55%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestEakin – Hayden – Asplund7:55
xG 0.64–0.34 (65%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson11:41
xG 0.75–0.82 (48%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
- Hinostroza – Krebs – Cozens10:47
xG 0.26–0.35 (43%)attempts 10–11goals 2–0
- Okposo – Olofsson – Mittelstadt10:09
xG 0.18–0.88 (17%)attempts 8–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Hagg9:56
xG 0.47–0.20 (71%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Bryson – Samuelsson13:02
xG 1.07–0.92 (54%)attempts 8–20goals 2–1
- Jokiharju – Dahlin16:30
xG 0.90–1.10 (45%)attempts 19–24goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).