Tue, Dec 20, 2022·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 97% of the time.
95%
TOR winsTBL wins
Who was on the ice
Model-basedLine matchups and every shift of the game.
TOR forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against TBL's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.
| Point–Cirelli–Hagel | Kucherov–Point–Hagel | Killorn–Stamkos–Paul | Perry–Namestnikov–Bellemare | Killorn–Paul–Colton | Maroon–Cirelli–Colton | Stamkos–Kucherov–Namestnikov | Perry–Maroon–Bellemare | Stamkos–Kucherov–Paul | Killorn–Maroon–Colton | Kucherov–Point–Cirelli | Cole–Cernak | Hedman–Perbix | Bogosian–Sergachev | Hedman–Sergachev | Cernak–Sergachev | Cole–Bogosian | Hedman–Cernak | Sergachev–Perbix | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nylander–Bunting–Matthews | 1:440.29–0.00 | 3:150.43–0.15 | 0:470.11–0.00 | 1:440.08–0.02 | 0:430.08–0.00 | 1:000.00–0.02 | 0:340.00–0.08 | 0:440.00–0.00 | 1:010.25–0.00 | 5:400.56–0.12 | 1:580.01–0.00 | 2:080.30–0.00 | 0:360.00–0.23 | 1:190.08–0.02 | 0:450.29–0.15 | ||||
| Kerfoot–Engvall–Kampf | 1:420.00–0.01 | 2:000.00–0.06 | 0:310.00–0.00 | 1:210.05–0.02 | 1:150.07–0.00 | 0:550.00–0.07 | 0:330.00–0.00 | 1:230.00–0.00 | 4:200.12–0.12 | 1:470.00–0.04 | 1:340.00–0.01 | ||||||||
| Tavares–Jarnkrok–Marner | 1:000.03–0.00 | 0:460.09–0.00 | 2:330.04–0.00 | 0:340.00–0.03 | 1:090.00–0.00 | 1:130.00–0.00 | 2:230.14–0.00 | 2:140.05–0.03 | 1:230.00–0.00 | 1:130.03–0.00 | 1:090.23–0.00 | ||||||||
| Anderson–Aston-Reese–Holmberg | 0:540.00–0.02 | 1:310.01–0.00 | 1:330.00–0.00 | 0:570.00–0.09 | 0:560.00–0.03 | 1:460.00–0.09 | 2:000.00–0.02 | 2:070.01–0.03 | 0:420.00–0.00 | ||||||||||
| Tavares–Kerfoot–Engvall | 0:450.00–0.00 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Marner–Matthews–Aston-Reese | 0:360.00–0.00 | 0:380.00–0.00 | 0:330.00–0.00 | ||||||||||||||||
| Brodie–Holl | 2:340.00–0.00 | 1:330.09–0.06 | 0:530.00–0.00 | 1:250.07–0.00 | 1:410.00–0.05 | 0:460.00–0.02 | 0:380.00–0.08 | 3:390.09–0.12 | 2:270.07–0.06 | 0:570.00–0.04 | 2:190.00–0.02 | 0:560.00–0.02 | |||||||
| Brodie–Timmins | 0:580.00–0.03 | 1:230.05–0.12 | 0:380.00–0.00 | 1:090.01–0.02 | 0:530.00–0.00 | 1:310.00–0.00 | 2:260.01–0.05 | 2:140.16–0.12 | 0:300.00–0.00 | 0:340.00–0.00 | |||||||||
| Giordano–Holl | 1:300.01–0.00 | 1:300.00–0.00 | 0:540.00–0.00 | 0:560.07–0.00 | 0:330.00–0.00 | 0:390.00–0.03 | 0:440.14–0.00 | 1:480.01–0.00 | 0:330.07–0.00 | 3:480.14–0.03 | 1:120.00–0.00 | ||||||||
| Giordano–Liljegren | 1:110.05–0.14 | 0:380.00–0.00 | 1:220.00–0.00 | 0:530.05–0.00 | 0:590.00–0.09 | 2:140.05–0.23 | 2:010.05–0.00 | 1:130.00–0.01 | 0:410.20–0.00 | ||||||||||
| Liljegren–Sandin | 1:490.37–0.15 | 1:370.04–0.02 | 1:410.05–0.03 | 0:590.37–0.00 | 2:570.05–0.05 | 0:420.08–0.00 | 0:340.04–0.00 | ||||||||||||
| Giordano–Timmins | 1:270.02–0.00 | 0:330.00–0.00 | 1:090.10–0.00 | 0:400.00–0.00 | 0:520.08–0.21 | ||||||||||||||
| Timmins–Liljegren | 1:060.29–0.00 | 0:460.00–0.03 | 0:340.00–0.03 | 0:310.29–0.00 | |||||||||||||||
| Brodie–Liljegren | 0:370.08–0.00 | 0:350.15–0.00 | 0:380.08–0.00 | 1:020.05–0.00 | 0:350.15–0.00 | ||||||||||||||
| Holl–Liljegren | 0:470.00–0.00 | 0:550.00–0.00 | |||||||||||||||||
| Giordano–Brodie | 0:360.00–0.00 | 0:560.08–0.00 |
Every shift, one row per player.
TORTBLFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.
Shift totals
 TJ BrodieTOR | 27 | 24:56 | 0:55 | 1:59 | 3 | 3 |
 Victor HedmanTBL | 27 | 23:41 | 0:53 | 2:05 | 2 | 1 |
 Mikhail SergachevTBL | 26 | 22:48 | 0:53 | 1:40 | 3 | 3 |
 Justin HollTOR | 28 | 22:45 | 0:49 | 1:46 | 1 | 7 |
 Mark GiordanoTOR | 29 | 22:12 | 0:46 | 1:36 | 1 | 3 |
 Erik CernakTBL | 26 | 21:41 | 0:50 | 1:36 | 2 | 4 |
 Auston MatthewsTOR | 20 | 21:24 | 1:04 | 2:34 | 3 | 1 |
 Timothy LiljegrenTOR | 28 | 21:17 | 0:46 | 1:28 | 3 | 1 |
 William NylanderTOR | 20 | 20:43 | 1:02 | 2:26 | 2 | 1 |
 Brayden PointTBL | 22 | 20:24 | 0:56 | 1:33 | 4 | 2 |
 Brandon HagelTBL | 24 | 20:07 | 0:50 | 1:32 | 4 | 1 |
 Ian ColeTBL | 23 | 19:47 | 0:52 | 2:02 | 2 | 3 |
 Mitch MarnerTOR | 22 | 17:42 | 0:48 | 1:38 | 1 | 3 |
 John TavaresTOR | 21 | 17:19 | 0:49 | 1:37 | 2 | 2 |
 Anthony CirelliTBL | 21 | 17:17 | 0:49 | 2:00 | 3 | 4 |
 Michael BuntingTOR | 17 | 17:15 | 1:01 | 2:28 | 3 | 1 |
 Nick PerbixTBL | 23 | 16:54 | 0:44 | 1:14 | 0 | 1 |
 Nikita KucherovTBL | 22 | 16:48 | 0:46 | 1:25 | 2 | 3 |
 Nick PaulTBL | 23 | 16:22 | 0:43 | 1:11 | 4 | 5 |
 Conor TimminsTOR | 23 | 16:11 | 0:42 | 1:26 | 1 | 1 |
 Alex KillornTBL | 22 | 15:36 | 0:43 | 1:30 | 3 | 3 |
 Pierre EngvallTOR | 17 | 15:16 | 0:54 | 1:57 | 0 | 2 |
 Steven StamkosTBL | 18 | 15:04 | 0:50 | 1:44 | 3 | 5 |
 David KampfTOR | 19 | 14:20 | 0:45 | 1:32 | 0 | 2 |
 Alexander KerfootTOR | 16 | 14:00 | 0:53 | 1:23 | 0 | 2 |
 Corey PerryTBL | 17 | 13:09 | 0:46 | 1:20 | 0 | 0 |
 Calle JarnkrokTOR | 19 | 12:50 | 0:41 | 0:54 | 0 | 2 |
 Zach BogosianTBL | 16 | 12:40 | 0:48 | 1:20 | 1 | 1 |
 Zachary Aston-ReeseTOR | 15 | 12:39 | 0:51 | 1:30 | 2 | 0 |
 Vladislav NamestnikovTBL | 15 | 12:25 | 0:50 | 1:18 | 1 | 0 |
 Pierre-Edouard BellemareTBL | 17 | 12:08 | 0:43 | 1:13 | 0 | 2 |
 Ross ColtonTBL | 16 | 10:35 | 0:40 | 0:57 | 3 | 0 |
 Pontus HolmbergTOR | 13 | 10:22 | 0:48 | 1:20 | 1 | 0 |
 Patrick MaroonTBL | 13 | 10:05 | 0:47 | 1:09 | 1 | 0 |
 Joey AndersonTOR | 13 | 8:47 | 0:41 | 1:11 | 3 | 0 |
 Rasmus SandinTOR | 10 | 8:30 | 0:51 | 1:11 | 2 | 0 |