Tue, Oct 10, 2023·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Nashville Predators 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 02 | 113 | 216 | 331 |
| TBL | 112 | 05 | 417 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:48TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Victor Hedman, Brayden Point · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 16:15NSHRyan O'ReillyAssists: Filip Forsberg, Ryan McDonagh · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 0:11NSHJuuso ParssinenAssists: Filip Forsberg, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–1
- P3 2:25TBLNick PaulPPAssists: Brayden Point, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–2
- P3 3:07TBLBrandon HagelUnassisted · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–3
- P3 8:48NSHTommy NovakPPAssists: Philip Tomasino, Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 10:52TBLNick PaulPPGWGAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–4
- P3 19:58TBLNikita KucherovENAssists: Nick Paul · Wrist, 0.73 xG3–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 12:05TBLNick Perbix: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:18NSHColton Sissons: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:30NSHRoman Josi: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:04TBLSteven Stamkos: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:18TBLMikhail Sergachev: Holding2 min
- P3 1:17NSHRoman Josi: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 3:07NSHLuke Schenn: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
- P3 7:06TBLNikita Kucherov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:44NSHJeremy Lauzon: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:12NSHPhilip Tomasino: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Forsberg – Parssinen6:26
xG 1.13–0.11 (91%)attempts 8–8goals 2–1
- Sissons – Trenin – Smith5:55
xG 0.31–0.27 (54%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Glass – Sherwood3:49
xG 0.09–0.19 (33%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Novak – Tomasino – Evangelista6:12
xG 0.02–0.31 (7%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Carrier12:22
xG 1.43–0.35 (81%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Schenn – Lauzon5:32
xG 0.38–0.21 (65%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Barrie – Lauzon4:07
xG 0.17–0.05 (78%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSheary – Cirelli – Hagel3:35
xG 0.36–0.13 (74%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
- Motte – Cirelli – Hagel4:43
xG 0.16–0.02 (91%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Paul – Sheary – Eyssimont5:53
xG 0.23–0.17 (58%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Glendening – Jeannot – Merela6:28
xG 0.18–0.17 (51%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRaddysh – Sergachev14:44
xG 0.94–0.55 (63%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
- de Haan – Cernak8:47
xG 0.29–0.02 (95%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Hedman – Cernak2:46
xG 0.16–0.03 (84%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).