Sat, Oct 14, 2023·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Detroit Red Wings 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 210 | 17 | 18 | 425 |
| DET | 214 | 221 | 27 | 642 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:11DETDaniel SprongAssists: Alex DeBrincat · Poke, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 9:46TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 12:52TBLBrandon HagelAssists: Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P1 14:35DETAlex DeBrincatAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere · Snap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 2:01DETLucas RaymondUnassisted · Slap, 0.10 xG2–3
- P2 10:53TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli · Snap, 0.05 xG3–3
- P2 15:23DETJ.T. CompherAssists: Moritz Seider, Andrew Copp · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–4
- P3 4:44DETAlex DeBrincatGWGAssists: Dylan Larkin · Snap, 0.11 xG3–5
- P3 9:39TBLVictor HedmanPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos · Snap, 0.07 xG4–5
- P3 19:59DETMoritz SeiderENAssists: J.T. Compher · Wrist, 0.49 xG4–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 16:54TBLAnthony Cirelli: Interference2 min
- P2 18:57DETDaniel Sprong: Holding2 min
- P3 8:51DETJake Walman: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 8:51TBLBrayden Point: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:51DETJake Walman: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Glendening
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Kucherov – Point5:22
xG 0.28–0.14 (67%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Paul – Cirelli – Hagel5:21
xG 0.30–0.34 (47%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
- Glendening – Jeannot – Merela9:04
xG 0.14–0.27 (34%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Kucherov – Paul – Eyssimont2:25
xG 0.08–0.31 (20%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- de Haan – Raddysh2:06
xG 0.20–0.17 (54%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Fleury – Cernak3:13
xG 0.06–0.07 (45%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Raddysh – Sergachev14:18
xG 0.09–0.65 (13%)attempts 12–19goals 0–3
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestLarkin – DeBrincat – Raymond13:38
xG 1.17–0.29 (80%)attempts 20–13goals 3–0
- Fischer – Kostin – Veleno3:35
xG 0.45–0.08 (85%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Perron – Sprong – Veleno4:49
xG 0.27–0.15 (65%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Copp – Compher – Rasmussen7:16
xG 0.20–0.27 (43%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWalman – Seider14:55
xG 1.38–0.76 (64%)attempts 19–23goals 2–1
- Maatta – Gostisbehere4:44
xG 0.59–0.13 (82%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Petry – Chiarot7:25
xG 0.58–0.20 (74%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).