Sat, Apr 13, 2024·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Detroit Red Wings 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 413 | 06 | 012 | 11 | 532 |
| TOR | 16 | 314 | 016 | 00 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:35TORMitch MarnerPPAssists: William Nylander, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 10:02DETAlex DeBrincatAssists: Lucas Raymond, Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 13:39DETSimon EdvinssonAssists: David Perron, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P1 17:37DETAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: J.T. Compher, Robby Fabbri · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P1 19:41DETDavid PerronAssists: Patrick Kane, J.T. Compher · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–1
- P2 9:04TORNick RobertsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–2
- P2 10:23TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–3
- P2 17:22TORJohn TavaresAssists: Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–4
- OT 0:41DETDylan LarkinPPGWGAssists: Patrick Kane, Shayne Gostisbehere · Tip-in, 0.15 xG5–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:07DETJoseph Veleno: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 16:06TORMatthew Knies: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:13TORTyler Bertuzzi: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:18DETPatrick Kane: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 17:15DETPatrick Kane: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:49TORMax Domi: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Sprong – Czarnik – Aston-Reese3:43
xG 0.17–0.13 (57%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Larkin – DeBrincat – Raymond13:32
xG 0.52–0.49 (52%)attempts 16–14goals 1–1
- Fabbri – Fischer – Veleno10:36
xG 0.18–0.21 (46%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
- Perron – Kane – Compher9:50
xG 0.27–0.63 (30%)attempts 8–12goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Edvinsson17:13
xG 0.70–0.53 (57%)attempts 16–19goals 2–0
- Maatta – Gostisbehere12:29
xG 0.28–0.35 (45%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Seider15:17
xG 0.28–0.39 (42%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestNylander – Holmberg – Robertson6:22
xG 0.24–0.10 (70%)attempts 12–3goals 0–1
- Tavares – Marner – Knies3:31
xG 0.18–0.07 (71%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Marner5:06
xG 0.11–0.02 (86%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Tavares – Marner – McMann2:48
xG 0.09–0.11 (45%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLyubushkin – Benoit3:31
xG 0.35–0.03 (92%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- McCabe – Benoit7:48
xG 0.30–0.25 (55%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Brodie – Benoit2:03
xG 0.05–0.04 (57%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).