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Ice Lab

Sat, Apr 13, 2024·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto

Detroit Red Wings 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 4 (OT)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 74% of the time.

TOR winsDET wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:33Shot by DeBrincat, saved by Samsonov
  3. P1 2:50Shot by Sprong, saved by Samsonov
  4. P1 2:53Shot by Raymond, saved by Samsonov
  5. P1 3:04Shot by Marner, saved by Reimer
  6. P1 3:11Shot by Liljegren, saved by Reimer
  7. P1 5:19Shot by Liljegren, saved by Reimer
  8. P1 6:33Shot by Matthews, saved by Reimer
  9. P1 8:07Veleno: Boarding (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Brodie, Nylander, Liljegren, Holmberg, Robertson · DET Maatta, Gostisbehere, Fabbri, Fischer, Veleno

  10. P1 8:35Goal by Marner (Nylander, Rielly)5v4+17 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, Marner, Matthews · DET Chiarot, Compher, Larkin, Seider

  11. P1 8:45Shot by Reaves, saved by Reimer
  12. P1 10:02Goal by DeBrincat (Raymond, Larkin)+17 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Brodie, Rielly, Bertuzzi, Domi, Matthews · DET Petry, Larkin, DeBrincat, Raymond, Edvinsson

  13. P1 13:39Goal by Edvinsson (Perron, Petry)+17 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Rielly, Nylander, Lyubushkin, Holmberg, Robertson · DET Petry, Perron, Kane, Compher, Edvinsson

  14. P1 14:01Shot by Larkin, saved by Samsonov
  15. P1 14:03Shot by Larkin, saved by Samsonov
  16. P1 14:32Shot by Seider, saved by Samsonov
  17. P1 14:42Shot by Edvinsson, saved by Samsonov
  18. P1 14:46Shot by Perron, saved by Samsonov
  19. P1 16:06Knies: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Reaves, Brodie, Liljegren, Kampf, Knies · DET Kane, Maatta, Gostisbehere, Larkin, Raymond

  20. P1 17:35Shot by Compher, saved by Samsonov4v5
  21. P1 17:37Goal by DeBrincat (Compher, Fabbri)4v5+16 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Nylander, Kampf, Lyubushkin, Benoit · DET Compher, Fabbri, Sprong, DeBrincat, Seider

  22. P1 19:41Goal by Perron (Kane, Compher)+10 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Brodie, Bertuzzi, Domi, Matthews, Liljegren · DET Perron, Kane, Chiarot, Compher, Seider

  23. P1 0:00Period end
  24. P2 0:00Period start
  25. P2 0:57Shot by Matthews, saved by Reimer
  26. P2 2:37Shot by Edvinsson, saved by Samsonov
  27. P2 2:41Shot by Raymond, saved by Samsonov
  28. P2 2:59Shot by Petry, saved by Samsonov
  29. P2 5:13Bertuzzi: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Brodie, Bertuzzi, Domi, Matthews, Lyubushkin · DET Petry, Fabbri, Fischer, Veleno, Edvinsson

  30. P2 5:54Shot by Kane, saved by Samsonov4v5
  31. P2 8:55Shot by Larkin, saved by Samsonov
  32. P2 9:04Goal by Robertson, unassisted+9 pts WP

    On ice: TOR McCabe, Holmberg, Benoit, Robertson, Knies · DET Perron, Kane, Maatta, Compher, Edvinsson

  33. P2 9:18Kane: High sticking double minor (4 min)

    On ice: TOR McCabe, Bertuzzi, Domi, Matthews, Benoit · DET Perron, Kane, Chiarot, Compher, Seider

  34. P2 9:23Shot by Nylander, saved by Reimer5v4
  35. P2 9:35Shot by Marner, saved by Reimer5v4
  36. P2 9:38Shot by Tavares, saved by Reimer5v4
  37. P2 9:41Shot by Nylander, saved by Reimer5v4
  38. P2 10:23Goal by Matthews (Marner, Rielly)5v4+16 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, Marner, Matthews · DET Chiarot, Compher, Fischer, Seider

  39. P2 11:15Shot by Bertuzzi, saved by Reimer5v4
  40. P2 11:32Shot by Matthews, saved by Reimer5v4
  41. P2 11:40Shot by Tavares, saved by Reimer5v4
  42. P2 11:51Shot by Matthews, saved by Reimer5v4
  43. P2 16:43Shot by DeBrincat, saved by Samsonov
  44. P2 17:22Goal by Tavares (Marner)+24 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Marner, Lyubushkin, Benoit, Knies · DET Chiarot, Larkin, DeBrincat, Seider, Raymond

  45. P2 17:47Shot by Nylander, saved by Reimer
  46. P2 19:40Shot by Knies, saved by Reimer
  47. P2 0:00Period end
  48. P3 0:00Period start
  49. P3 0:09Shot by DeBrincat, saved by Samsonov
  50. P3 1:01Shot by Matthews, saved by Reimer
  51. P3 2:59Shot by Robertson, saved by Reimer
  52. P3 4:43Shot by Holmberg, saved by Reimer
  53. P3 7:02Shot by Knies, saved by Reimer
  54. P3 7:12Shot by Raymond, saved by Samsonov
  55. P3 7:25Shot by Nylander, saved by Reimer
  56. P3 7:30Shot by Domi, saved by Reimer
  57. P3 8:09Shot by Kane, saved by Samsonov
  58. P3 8:27Shot by Fischer, saved by Samsonov
  59. P3 8:28Shot by Fischer, saved by Samsonov
  60. P3 10:00Shot by Chiarot, saved by Samsonov
  61. P3 10:33Shot by Raymond, saved by Samsonov
  62. P3 10:57Shot by Brodie, saved by Reimer
  63. P3 11:51Shot by Robertson, saved by Reimer
  64. P3 13:05Shot by DeBrincat, saved by Samsonov
  65. P3 13:09Shot by Kane, saved by Samsonov
  66. P3 13:29Shot by Matthews, saved by Reimer
  67. P3 17:15Kane: High sticking (2 min)6v5

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Rielly, Bertuzzi, Nylander, Marner, Matthews · DET Perron, Chiarot, Compher, DeBrincat, Seider

  68. P3 17:27Shot by Nylander, saved by Reimer5v4
  69. P3 18:06Shot by Tavares, saved by Reimer5v4
  70. P3 18:11Shot by Chiarot, saved by Samsonov5v4
  71. P3 18:32Shot by Matthews, saved by Reimer5v4
  72. P3 18:34Shot by Matthews, saved by Reimer5v4
  73. P3 18:35Shot by Matthews, saved by Reimer5v4
  74. P3 18:58Shot by Tavares, saved by Reimer5v4
  75. P3 19:07Shot by Marner, saved by Reimer5v4
  76. P3 19:49Domi: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Brodie, Bertuzzi, Domi, Kampf, Benoit · DET Petry, DeBrincat, Veleno, Raymond, Edvinsson

  77. P3 19:55Shot by Larkin, saved by Samsonov4v5
  78. P3 19:58Shot by Gostisbehere, saved by Samsonov4v5
  79. P3 0:00Period end4v5
  80. OT 0:00Period start
  81. OT 0:41Goal by Larkin (Kane, Gostisbehere)3v4+55 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Brodie, Kampf, Benoit · DET Kane, Gostisbehere, Larkin, DeBrincat

  82. OT 0:41Period end3v3
  83. OT 0:41Final4v4