Tue, Jan 7, 2025·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Ottawa Senators 2, Detroit Red Wings 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 010 | 213 | 010 | 00 | 233 |
| DET | 114 | 08 | 18 | 13 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:30DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Lucas Raymond · Snap, 0.34 xG0–1
- P2 12:25OTTThomas ChabotAssists: Nick Jensen, Nick Cousins · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 19:05OTTBrady TkachukPPAssists: Jake Sanderson, Tim Stützle · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 5:00DETJoseph VelenoAssists: Simon Edvinsson, Tyler Motte · Snap, 0.16 xG2–2
- OT 2:21DETPatrick KanePPGWGAssists: Dylan Larkin · Snap, 0.17 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:07OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min · PPG
- P1 11:08OTTBrady Tkachuk: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:20DETSimon Edvinsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:12DETJustin Holl: Roughing2 min · PPG
- OT 2:10OTTJake Sanderson: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pinto won the faceoff against Compher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTkachuk – Pinto – Greig12:13
xG 0.71–0.22 (76%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Giroux – Batherson – Stützle11:18
xG 0.58–0.32 (64%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Cousins – Gaudette – Norris8:39
xG 0.31–0.28 (52%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Cousins – Gregor – Norris2:29
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanderson – Zub16:24
xG 1.09–0.26 (81%)attempts 27–10goals 0–0
- Chabot – Zub2:08
xG 0.20–0.04 (82%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Jensen – Chabot17:52
xG 0.41–0.37 (53%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestKane – Copp – DeBrincat11:52
xG 0.90–0.42 (68%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Motte – Rasmussen – Veleno3:36
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Tarasenko – Compher – Berggren12:10
xG 0.27–0.40 (40%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Larkin – Veleno – Raymond6:45
xG 0.09–0.27 (25%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Seider17:39
xG 0.99–0.52 (65%)attempts 20–16goals 0–0
- Holl – Gustafsson15:52
xG 0.38–0.43 (47%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Johansson – Edvinsson14:41
xG 0.33–0.80 (29%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).