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Ice Lab

Tue, Jan 7, 2025·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit

Ottawa Senators 2, Detroit Red Wings 3 (OT)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 66% of the time.

DET winsOTT wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:40Shot by Chabot, saved by Lyon
  3. P1 2:47Shot by Ostapchuk, saved by Lyon
  4. P1 2:58Shot by Norris, saved by Lyon
  5. P1 3:58Shot by Zub, saved by Lyon
  6. P1 4:00Shot by Greig, saved by Lyon
  7. P1 6:24Shot by Larkin, saved by Forsberg
  8. P1 6:36Shot by Veleno, saved by Forsberg
  9. P1 7:03Shot by Greig, saved by Lyon
  10. P1 7:07Tkachuk: Roughing removing opponents helmet (2 min)

    On ice: DET Kane, Copp, DeBrincat, Johansson, Edvinsson · OTT Tkachuk, Pinto, Greig, Sanderson, Zub

  11. P1 8:04Shot by Kane, saved by Forsberg5v4
  12. P1 8:30Goal by Larkin (DeBrincat, Raymond)5v4+11 pts WP

    On ice: DET Kane, Larkin, DeBrincat, Seider, Raymond · OTT Jensen, Chabot, Pinto, Greig

  13. P1 9:14Shot by Motte, saved by Forsberg
  14. P1 9:39Shot by Sanderson, saved by Lyon
  15. P1 9:50Shot by Sanderson, saved by Lyon
  16. P1 10:26Shot by Larkin, saved by Forsberg
  17. P1 11:08Tkachuk: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: DET Kane, Copp, DeBrincat, Johansson, Edvinsson · OTT Jensen, Chabot, Tkachuk, Pinto, Greig

  18. P1 12:37Shot by Compher, saved by Forsberg5v4
  19. P1 12:54Shot by Tarasenko, saved by Forsberg5v4
  20. P1 13:37Shot by Copp, saved by Forsberg
  21. P1 14:02Shot by Edvinsson, saved by Forsberg
  22. P1 15:36Shot by Norris, saved by Lyon
  23. P1 16:11Shot by Jensen, saved by Lyon
  24. P1 18:45Shot by Seider, saved by Forsberg
  25. P1 19:16Shot by Kane, saved by Forsberg
  26. P1 19:17Shot by Kane, saved by Forsberg
  27. P1 19:23Shot by Edvinsson, saved by Forsberg
  28. P1 0:00Period end
  29. P2 0:00Period start
  30. P2 0:38Shot by Raymond, saved by Forsberg
  31. P2 0:46Shot by Stützle, saved by Talbot
  32. P2 0:59Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Talbot
  33. P2 2:22Shot by Ostapchuk, saved by Talbot
  34. P2 3:40Shot by Chabot, saved by Talbot
  35. P2 5:50Shot by Johansson, saved by Forsberg
  36. P2 7:45Shot by Pinto, saved by Talbot
  37. P2 8:37Shot by Gaudette, saved by Talbot
  38. P2 9:21Shot by Chabot, saved by Talbot
  39. P2 10:20Edvinsson: Tripping (2 min)5v6

    On ice: DET Kane, Copp, DeBrincat, Johansson, Edvinsson · OTT Giroux, Cousins, Norris, Sanderson, Stützle, Zub

  40. P2 11:08Shot by Sanderson, saved by Talbot4v5
  41. P2 12:25Goal by Chabot (Jensen, Cousins)+20 pts WP

    On ice: DET Holl, Motte, Berggren, Johansson, Kasper · OTT Jensen, Cousins, Chabot, Pinto, Greig

  42. P2 12:47Shot by DeBrincat, saved by Forsberg
  43. P2 13:23Shot by Seider, saved by Forsberg
  44. P2 14:39Shot by Raymond, saved by Forsberg
  45. P2 15:27Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Talbot
  46. P2 17:48Shot by Berggren, saved by Forsberg
  47. P2 17:55Shot by Tarasenko, saved by Forsberg
  48. P2 18:12Holl: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: DET Holl, Tarasenko, Gustafsson, Compher, Berggren · OTT Giroux, Jensen, Cousins, Chabot, Norris

  49. P2 18:26Shot by Stützle, saved by Talbot4v5
  50. P2 19:05Goal by Tkachuk (Sanderson, Stützle)4v5+26 pts WP

    On ice: DET Chiarot, Copp, Compher, Seider · OTT Norris, Batherson, Tkachuk, Sanderson, Stützle

  51. P2 19:20Shot by Holl, saved by Forsberg
  52. P2 19:22Shot by Jensen, saved by Talbot
  53. P2 0:00Period end
  54. P3 0:00Period start
  55. P3 0:05Shot by Compher, saved by Forsberg
  56. P3 0:59Shot by Stützle, saved by Talbot
  57. P3 2:34Shot by Rasmussen, saved by Forsberg
  58. P3 2:50Shot by Seider, saved by Forsberg
  59. P3 3:33Shot by Giroux, saved by Talbot
  60. P3 4:57Shot by Edvinsson, saved by Forsberg
  61. P3 5:00Goal by Veleno (Edvinsson, Motte)+31 pts WP

    On ice: DET Chiarot, Motte, Rasmussen, Veleno, Edvinsson · OTT Gregor, Jenik, Kleven, Ostapchuk, Matinpalo

  62. P3 5:59Shot by Stützle, saved by Talbot
  63. P3 6:06Shot by Batherson, saved by Talbot
  64. P3 9:26Shot by Kasper, saved by Forsberg
  65. P3 10:49Shot by Norris, saved by Talbot
  66. P3 11:16Shot by Zub, saved by Talbot
  67. P3 12:31Shot by Kasper, saved by Forsberg
  68. P3 14:40Shot by Chabot, saved by Talbot
  69. P3 16:03Shot by Copp, saved by Forsberg
  70. P3 17:09Shot by Matinpalo, saved by Talbot
  71. P3 17:52Shot by Zub, saved by Talbot
  72. P3 19:37Shot by Batherson, saved by Talbot
  73. P3 0:00Period end
  74. OT 0:00Period start
  75. OT 0:36Shot by Larkin, saved by Forsberg3v3
  76. OT 1:52Shot by Gustafsson, saved by Forsberg3v3
  77. OT 2:10Sanderson: Hooking (2 min)3v3

    On ice: DET Kane, Seider, Kasper · OTT Batherson, Sanderson, Stützle

  78. OT 2:21Goal by Kane (Larkin)4v3+46 pts WP

    On ice: DET Kane, Larkin, Seider, Raymond · OTT Jensen, Pinto, Zub

  79. OT 2:21Period end3v3
  80. OT 2:21Final4v4