Thu, Oct 9, 2025·Benchmark International Arena, Tampa
Ottawa Senators 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 113 | 213 | 28 | 534 |
| TBL | 314 | 07 | 14 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:35TBLOliver BjorkstrandPPAssists: Jake Guentzel, Brayden Point · Snap, 0.25 xG0–1
- P1 7:00TBLBrayden PointAssists: Jake Guentzel, Darren Raddysh · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P1 10:18OTTDylan CozensPPAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Jake Sanderson · Slap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P1 14:46TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 0:42OTTArtem ZubAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.00 xG2–3
- P2 15:09OTTShane PintoAssists: Artem Zub, Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–3
- P3 18:13OTTShane PintoAssists: Jake Sanderson · Snap, 0.23 xG4–3
- P3 19:12OTTClaude GirouxENGWGAssists: Shane Pinto, Artem Zub · Wrist, 0.53 xG5–3
- P3 19:46TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Darren Raddysh, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.01 xG5–4
Penalties (15)
- P1 2:26OTTKurtis MacDermid: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 2:26TBLCurtis Douglas: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:45OTTDylan Cozens: Holding2 min
- P1 9:10TBLBrandon Hagel: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 12:34OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:34TBLAnthony Cirelli: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:34TBLBrandon Hagel: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:34OTTThomas Chabot: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:38TBLEmil Lilleberg: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:38OTTDonovan Sebrango: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 12:58OTTDavid Perron: Holding2 min
- P1 15:19TBLPontus Holmberg: Holding2 min
- P2 7:53TBLMitchell Chaffee: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:31TBLMitchell Chaffee: Holding2 min
- P3 2:23OTTArtem Zub: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pinto won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestZetterlund – Tkachuk – Stützle10:48
xG 0.94–0.47 (67%)attempts 22–14goals 1–0
- Giroux – Pinto – Greig9:04
xG 0.59–0.16 (79%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Eller – Cousins – Amadio5:31
xG 0.05–0.01 (80%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Perron – Amadio – Cozens7:42
xG 0.20–0.19 (51%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanderson – Zub13:19
xG 1.11–0.21 (84%)attempts 21–8goals 2–0
- Jensen – Chabot15:53
xG 0.73–0.45 (62%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Sebrango – Zub3:03
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestCirelli – Hagel – Goncalves7:42
xG 0.35–0.26 (58%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Douglas – Holmberg – Geekie3:56
xG 0.08–0.01 (90%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Chaffee8:32
xG 0.07–0.22 (25%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Guentzel – Point12:08
xG 0.41–1.32 (24%)attempts 8–23goals 1–3
Defence pairs
- McDonagh – Cernak12:41
xG 0.39–0.53 (42%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- Crozier – Lilleberg15:19
xG 0.32–0.77 (29%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Hedman – Raddysh12:56
xG 0.29–0.87 (25%)attempts 9–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).