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Ice Lab

Thu, Oct 9, 2025·Benchmark International Arena, Tampa

Ottawa Senators 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 4

Away

Ottawa Senators

5

Final

Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 76% of the time.

TBL winsOTT wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:47Shot by Stützle, saved by Vasilevskiy
  3. P1 0:55Shot by Chabot, saved by Vasilevskiy
  4. P1 1:49Shot by Cirelli, saved by Ullmark
  5. P1 1:51Shot by Hedman, saved by Ullmark
  6. P1 2:26MacDermid: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: TBL Douglas, Holmberg, Crozier, Lilleberg, Geekie · OTT Eller, Cousins, MacDermid, Sanderson, Zub

  7. P1 2:26Douglas: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: TBL Douglas, Holmberg, Crozier, Lilleberg, Geekie · OTT Eller, Cousins, MacDermid, Sanderson, Zub

  8. P1 3:42Shot by Greig, saved by Vasilevskiy
  9. P1 4:45Cozens: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Gourde, Hagel, Crozier, Goncalves, Lilleberg · OTT Amadio, Tkachuk, Cozens, Sanderson, Zub

  10. P1 5:03Shot by Kucherov, saved by Ullmark5v4
  11. P1 5:35Goal by Bjorkstrand (Guentzel, Point)5v4+12 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Hedman, Kucherov, Guentzel, Bjorkstrand, Point · OTT Pinto, Greig, Sanderson, Zub

  12. P1 7:00Goal by Point (Guentzel, Raddysh)+12 pts WP

    On ice: TBL McDonagh, Kucherov, Guentzel, Point, Raddysh · OTT Perron, Tkachuk, Cozens, Sebrango, Matinpalo

  13. P1 7:10Shot by Greig, saved by Vasilevskiy
  14. P1 8:45Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Vasilevskiy
  15. P1 9:10Hagel: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TBL McDonagh, Cernak, Cirelli, Hagel, Goncalves · OTT Jensen, Chabot, Zetterlund, Tkachuk, Stützle

  16. P1 9:25Shot by Sanderson, saved by Vasilevskiy4v5
  17. P1 10:18Goal by Cozens (Tkachuk, Sanderson)4v5+12 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Hedman, Guentzel, Holmberg, Lilleberg · OTT Tkachuk, Cozens, Pinto, Sanderson, Stützle

  18. P1 10:45Shot by Crozier, saved by Ullmark
  19. P1 11:20Shot by Raddysh, saved by Ullmark
  20. P1 11:42Shot by Chaffee, saved by Ullmark
  21. P1 12:32Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Vasilevskiy
  22. P1 12:33Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Vasilevskiy
  23. P1 12:34Tkachuk: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Bjorkstrand, Cirelli, Hagel, Crozier, Lilleberg · OTT Chabot, Zetterlund, Tkachuk, Stützle, Matinpalo

  24. P1 12:34Cirelli: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Bjorkstrand, Cirelli, Hagel, Crozier, Lilleberg · OTT Chabot, Zetterlund, Tkachuk, Stützle, Matinpalo

  25. P1 12:34Hagel: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Bjorkstrand, Cirelli, Hagel, Crozier, Lilleberg · OTT Chabot, Zetterlund, Tkachuk, Stützle, Matinpalo

  26. P1 12:34Chabot: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Bjorkstrand, Cirelli, Hagel, Crozier, Lilleberg · OTT Chabot, Zetterlund, Tkachuk, Stützle, Matinpalo

  27. P1 12:38Lilleberg: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: TBL Douglas, Holmberg, Crozier, Lilleberg, Geekie · OTT Eller, Cousins, MacDermid, Sebrango, Matinpalo

  28. P1 12:38Sebrango: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: TBL Douglas, Holmberg, Crozier, Lilleberg, Geekie · OTT Eller, Cousins, MacDermid, Sebrango, Matinpalo

  29. P1 12:58Perron: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Hedman, Gourde, Bjorkstrand, Crozier, Chaffee · OTT Perron, Amadio, Cozens, Sanderson, Zub

  30. P1 13:10Shot by Guentzel, saved by Ullmark5v4
  31. P1 14:33Shot by Guentzel, saved by Ullmark4v3
  32. P1 14:46Goal by Kucherov (Hedman, Point)4v3+13 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Hedman, Kucherov, Guentzel, Bjorkstrand, Point · OTT Eller, Jensen, Amadio, Matinpalo

  33. P1 15:19Holmberg: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: TBL McDonagh, Cernak, Hagel, Holmberg, Goncalves · OTT Zetterlund, Tkachuk, Sanderson, Stützle, Zub

  34. P1 15:53Shot by Cozens, saved by Vasilevskiy4v5
  35. P1 16:57Shot by Giroux, saved by Vasilevskiy4v5
  36. P1 17:07Shot by Greig, saved by Vasilevskiy4v5
  37. P1 17:35Shot by Hagel, saved by Ullmark
  38. P1 17:50Shot by Cousins, saved by Vasilevskiy
  39. P1 19:45Shot by Hagel, saved by Ullmark
  40. P1 19:48Shot by Hagel, saved by Ullmark
  41. P1 0:00Period end
  42. P2 0:00Period start
  43. P2 0:42Goal by Zub (Tkachuk, Stützle)+13 pts WP

    On ice: TBL McDonagh, Kucherov, Guentzel, Point, Cernak · OTT Chabot, Zetterlund, Tkachuk, Stützle, Zub

  44. P2 1:00Shot by Bjorkstrand, saved by Ullmark
  45. P2 3:34Shot by Cirelli, saved by Ullmark
  46. P2 4:19Shot by Crozier, saved by Ullmark
  47. P2 5:03Shot by Crozier, saved by Ullmark
  48. P2 5:55Shot by Zub, saved by Vasilevskiy
  49. P2 6:35Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Vasilevskiy
  50. P2 7:44Shot by Matinpalo, saved by Vasilevskiy
  51. P2 7:52Shot by Perron, saved by Vasilevskiy
  52. P2 7:53Chaffee: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Hedman, Gourde, Bjorkstrand, Raddysh, Chaffee · OTT Perron, Jensen, Amadio, Chabot, Cozens

  53. P2 8:49Shot by Stützle, saved by Vasilevskiy4v5
  54. P2 11:03Shot by Kucherov, saved by Ullmark
  55. P2 11:19Shot by Stützle, saved by Vasilevskiy
  56. P2 11:30Shot by Gourde, saved by Ullmark
  57. P2 11:48Shot by McDonagh, saved by Ullmark
  58. P2 13:24Shot by Perron, saved by Vasilevskiy
  59. P2 14:17Shot by Chabot, saved by Vasilevskiy
  60. P2 14:56Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Vasilevskiy
  61. P2 15:09Goal by Pinto (Zub, Tkachuk)+27 pts WP

    On ice: TBL McDonagh, Kucherov, Guentzel, Point, Raddysh · OTT Giroux, Pinto, Greig, Sanderson, Zub

  62. P2 15:27Shot by Zub, saved by Vasilevskiy
  63. P2 15:43Shot by Zub, saved by Vasilevskiy
  64. P2 18:31Chaffee: Holding (2 min)5v6

    On ice: TBL Gourde, Bjorkstrand, Crozier, Lilleberg, Geekie · OTT Perron, Zetterlund, Cozens, Sanderson, Stützle, Zub

  65. P2 0:00Period end4v5
  66. P3 0:00Period start
  67. P3 1:05Shot by Greig, saved by Vasilevskiy
  68. P3 1:28Shot by Eller, saved by Vasilevskiy
  69. P3 2:12Shot by Zub, saved by Vasilevskiy
  70. P3 2:23Zub: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Hedman, Gourde, Bjorkstrand, Raddysh, Chaffee · OTT Giroux, Pinto, Greig, Sanderson, Zub

  71. P3 10:38Shot by Douglas, saved by Ullmark
  72. P3 14:18Shot by Sanderson, saved by Vasilevskiy
  73. P3 15:53Shot by Chabot, saved by Vasilevskiy
  74. P3 15:57Shot by Gourde, saved by Ullmark
  75. P3 17:33Shot by Raddysh, saved by Ullmark
  76. P3 18:12Shot by Sanderson, saved by Vasilevskiy
  77. P3 18:13Goal by Pinto (Sanderson)+37 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Hedman, Kucherov, Guentzel, Point, Raddysh · OTT Giroux, Tkachuk, Pinto, Sanderson, Zub

  78. P3 19:12Goal by Giroux (Pinto, Zub)6v5+6 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Hedman, Kucherov, Guentzel, Point, Raddysh, Cirelli · OTT Giroux, Pinto, Greig, Sanderson, Zub

  79. P3 19:46Goal by Kucherov (Raddysh, Hedman)6v5+3 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Hedman, Kucherov, Guentzel, Point, Raddysh, Cirelli · OTT Giroux, Jensen, Chabot, Pinto, Greig

  80. P3 0:00Period end6v5
  81. P3 0:00Final6v5