Thu, Oct 9, 2025·Benchmark International Arena, Tampa
Ottawa Senators 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 76% of the time.
17%
69%
TBL winsOTT wins
Who was on the ice
Model-basedLine matchups and every shift of the game.
TBL forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against OTT's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.
| Zetterlund–Tkachuk–Stützle | Giroux–Pinto–Greig | Perron–Amadio–Cozens | Eller–Cousins–Amadio | Eller–Cousins–MacDermid | Eller–Cousins–Greig | Jensen–Chabot | Sanderson–Zub | Sebrango–Matinpalo | Sebrango–Zub | Chabot–Zub | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kucherov–Guentzel–Point | 1:360.07–0.10 | 5:490.13–0.38 | 1:160.00–0.00 | 3:330.03–0.03 | 4:500.14–1.05 | 1:440.08–0.15 | 0:390.00–0.00 | ||||
| Gourde–Bjorkstrand–Chaffee | 1:470.00–0.02 | 3:220.05–0.20 | 1:270.00–0.00 | 4:020.07–0.20 | 2:210.00–0.02 | 1:110.00–0.00 | 0:340.00–0.00 | ||||
| Cirelli–Hagel–Goncalves | 5:180.35–0.14 | 0:340.00–0.00 | 3:400.19–0.08 | 1:050.00–0.00 | 2:160.16–0.03 | ||||||
| Douglas–Holmberg–Geekie | 1:330.07–0.00 | 0:460.00–0.00 | 0:300.00–0.01 | 1:110.01–0.00 | 1:590.07–0.00 | ||||||
| Holmberg–Chaffee–Geekie | 1:100.01–0.00 | 0:330.00–0.00 | 0:410.01–0.00 | 0:360.00–0.00 | 0:320.00–0.00 | ||||||
| Hagel–Holmberg–Goncalves | 0:590.00–0.00 | 0:420.00–0.00 | |||||||||
| Gourde–Holmberg–Geekie | 0:350.00–0.00 | 0:370.00–0.00 | |||||||||
| Crozier–Lilleberg | 1:320.07–0.57 | 1:300.00–0.12 | 3:070.19–0.04 | 4:060.01–0.00 | 0:470.00–0.00 | 0:580.00–0.00 | 5:260.09–0.25 | 3:190.05–0.04 | 4:100.11–0.00 | 0:570.00–0.00 | |
| Hedman–Raddysh | 1:130.08–0.00 | 5:540.16–0.14 | 1:160.00–0.16 | 0:320.00–0.00 | 1:020.00–0.00 | 3:410.06–0.26 | 4:270.01–0.62 | 2:430.08–0.00 | 1:010.00–0.00 | ||
| McDonagh–Cernak | 6:180.19–0.21 | 0:440.00–0.17 | 2:280.00–0.00 | 5:030.25–0.08 | 4:000.13–0.24 | 1:580.00–0.18 | 0:350.00–0.00 | 0:500.00–0.03 | |||
| Hedman–Crozier | 0:300.00–0.00 | 0:380.00–0.00 | 0:300.00–0.00 | 0:390.00–0.00 | |||||||
| McDonagh–Raddysh | 0:380.09–0.01 | 0:300.17–0.00 |
Every shift, one row per player.
TBLOTTFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.
Shift totals
 Victor HedmanTBL | 26 | 23:49 | 0:55 | 2:08 | 2 | 2 |
 Jake SandersonOTT | 31 | 23:10 | 0:45 | 1:40 | 2 | 3 |
 Jake GuentzelTBL | 26 | 22:32 | 0:52 | 1:48 | 4 | 2 |
 Thomas ChabotOTT | 28 | 22:00 | 0:47 | 1:29 | 6 | 1 |
 Nikita KucherovTBL | 23 | 20:55 | 0:55 | 1:48 | 5 | 0 |
 Artem ZubOTT | 32 | 20:44 | 0:39 | 1:17 | 0 | 3 |
 Brayden PointTBL | 23 | 19:40 | 0:51 | 1:48 | 5 | 1 |
 Nick JensenOTT | 28 | 19:35 | 0:42 | 1:32 | 5 | 2 |
 Brady TkachukOTT | 26 | 19:24 | 0:45 | 1:52 | 6 | 0 |
 Shane PintoOTT | 27 | 19:21 | 0:43 | 1:09 | 5 | 4 |
 Tim StützleOTT | 23 | 19:03 | 0:50 | 1:46 | 5 | 0 |
 Emil LillebergTBL | 24 | 19:02 | 0:48 | 1:40 | 6 | 2 |
 Michael AmadioOTT | 26 | 18:54 | 0:44 | 1:56 | 2 | 4 |
 Ryan McDonaghTBL | 26 | 18:45 | 0:43 | 1:34 | 0 | 7 |
 Erik CernakTBL | 25 | 18:25 | 0:44 | 1:39 | 0 | 5 |
 Ridly GreigOTT | 27 | 18:09 | 0:40 | 1:11 | 3 | 5 |
 Max CrozierTBL | 22 | 17:52 | 0:49 | 1:40 | 4 | 2 |
 Darren RaddyshTBL | 24 | 17:33 | 0:44 | 1:32 | 1 | 2 |
 Yanni GourdeTBL | 23 | 17:08 | 0:45 | 1:40 | 2 | 6 |
 Fabian ZetterlundOTT | 24 | 16:34 | 0:41 | 1:20 | 4 | 0 |
 Brandon HagelTBL | 22 | 15:40 | 0:43 | 1:36 | 0 | 5 |
 Dylan CozensOTT | 20 | 15:35 | 0:47 | 1:56 | 5 | 3 |
 Claude GirouxOTT | 22 | 15:11 | 0:41 | 1:20 | 3 | 1 |
 Anthony CirelliTBL | 22 | 14:56 | 0:41 | 1:14 | 1 | 6 |
 Oliver BjorkstrandTBL | 16 | 14:39 | 0:55 | 2:08 | 3 | 4 |
 Lars EllerOTT | 20 | 14:20 | 0:43 | 1:31 | 1 | 5 |
 Donovan SebrangoOTT | 23 | 14:18 | 0:37 | 1:55 | 1 | 1 |
 Nikolas MatinpaloOTT | 23 | 13:35 | 0:35 | 2:07 | 1 | 1 |
 Mitchell ChaffeeTBL | 20 | 13:24 | 0:40 | 1:31 | 4 | 4 |
 David PerronOTT | 17 | 12:37 | 0:45 | 1:56 | 4 | 2 |
 Gage GoncalvesTBL | 17 | 11:56 | 0:42 | 1:26 | 0 | 3 |
 Pontus HolmbergTBL | 19 | 11:52 | 0:37 | 1:10 | 5 | 1 |
 Nick CousinsOTT | 16 | 10:46 | 0:40 | 1:05 | 1 | 2 |
 Conor GeekieTBL | 17 | 10:39 | 0:38 | 1:08 | 5 | 1 |
 Curtis DouglasTBL | 11 | 5:09 | 0:28 | 1:00 | 5 | 0 |
 Kurtis MacDermidOTT | 6 | 2:13 | 0:22 | 0:53 | 1 | 0 |