Sun, Nov 9, 2025·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Carolina Hurricanes 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 212 | 113 | 222 | 547 |
| TOR | 310 | 18 | 02 | 420 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:00TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Matthew Knies, Morgan Rielly · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 8:34CARSebastian AhoPPAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, K'Andre Miller · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 14:31CARSeth JarvisAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Alexander Nikishin · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P1 15:31TORJohn TavaresAssists: Bobby McMann, Nick Robertson · Snap, 0.25 xG2–2
- P1 19:01TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: John Tavares, Auston Matthews · Slap, 0.06 xG2–3
- P2 11:03TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Jake McCabe, Matthew Knies · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–4
- P2 16:51CARSean WalkerAssists: William Carrier · Wrist, 0.00 xG3–4
- P3 3:20CARTaylor HallAssists: Jackson Blake, Logan Stankoven · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–4
- P3 12:13CARLogan StankovenGWGAssists: K'Andre Miller, Nikolaj Ehlers · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:00TORJake McCabe: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 17:48CARK'Andre Miller: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 0:00CARCharles Alexis Legault: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00TORBobby McMann: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:31TORWilliam Nylander: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:06TORJake McCabe: Interference2 min
- P2 17:47CARJackson Blake: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:56CARJordan Staal: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:00TORWilliam Nylander: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestHall – Robinson – Kotkaniemi6:19
xG 1.15–0.42 (73%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Ehlers – Stankoven – Blake9:00
xG 0.61–0.00 (99%)attempts 16–4goals 1–0
- Aho – Svechnikov – Jarvis9:53
xG 0.37–0.06 (86%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Staal – Martinook – Carrier11:06
xG 0.46–0.45 (51%)attempts 14–8goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestWalker – Miller12:49
xG 1.42–0.25 (85%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Miller – Nystrom2:52
xG 0.71–0.12 (86%)attempts 8–3goals 2–0
- Reilly – Nystrom4:11
xG 0.37–0.01 (98%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Robertson – McMann8:40
xG 0.42–0.15 (73%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
- Joshua – Roy – Maccelli9:07
xG 0.02–0.13 (14%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Nylander – Matthews – Knies11:42
xG 0.42–0.82 (34%)attempts 7–20goals 2–3
- Jarnkrok – Domi – Blais4:44
xG 0.08–1.46 (5%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- McCabe – Myers3:01
xG 0.05–0.09 (38%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – McCabe2:20
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Myers5:31
xG 0.02–0.24 (8%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).