Sun, Nov 9, 2025·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Carolina Hurricanes 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 90% of the time.
Play-by-play
Model-basedEvery event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.
- P1 0:00Period start
- P1 0:17Shot by Ekman-Larsson, saved by Bussi
- P1 5:00Goal by Nylander (Knies, Rielly)+13 pts WP
On ice: TOR Rielly, Nylander, Myers, Matthews, Knies · CAR Staal, Reilly, Martinook, Carrier, Legault
- P1 5:53Shot by Jarvis, saved by Hildeby
- P1 6:42Shot by Hall, saved by Hildeby
- P1 6:46Shot by Hall, saved by Hildeby
- P1 6:46Shot by Hall, saved by Hildeby
- P1 6:47Shot by Walker, saved by Hildeby
- P1 6:53Shot by Kotkaniemi, saved by Hildeby
- P1 8:00McCabe: Holding (2 min)
On ice: TOR Tavares, McCabe, Myers, Robertson, McMann · CAR Ehlers, Walker, Miller, Kotkaniemi, Blake
- P1 8:23Shot by Svechnikov, saved by Hildeby4v5
- P1 8:34Goal by Aho (Ehlers, Miller)4v5+14 pts WP
On ice: TOR Myers, Matthews, Benoit, Knies · CAR Ehlers, Aho, Miller, Svechnikov, Jarvis
- P1 10:31Shot by Blake, saved by Hildeby
- P1 11:09Shot by Aho, saved by Hildeby
- P1 14:31Goal by Jarvis (Svechnikov, Nikishin)+16 pts WP
On ice: TOR McCabe, Nylander, Matthews, Benoit, Knies · CAR Aho, Svechnikov, Jarvis, Nikishin, Legault
- P1 15:00Shot by Rielly, saved by Bussi
- P1 15:28Shot by Tavares, saved by Bussi
- P1 15:29Shot by Robertson, saved by Bussi
- P1 15:31Goal by Tavares (McMann, Robertson)+16 pts WP
On ice: TOR Tavares, Carlo, Benoit, Robertson, McMann · CAR Hall, Robinson, Kotkaniemi, Nikishin, Nystrom
- P1 15:49Shot by Benoit, saved by Bussi
- P1 16:06Shot by Benoit, saved by Bussi
- P1 16:20Shot by Martinook, saved by Hildeby
- P1 16:53Shot by Knies, saved by Bussi
- P1 17:48Miller: Hooking (2 min)6v5
On ice: TOR Tavares, McCabe, Nylander, Carlo, Robertson, McMann · CAR Ehlers, Miller, Stankoven, Blake, Nystrom
- P1 19:01Goal by Nylander (Tavares, Matthews)5v4+19 pts WP
On ice: TOR Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, Matthews, Knies · CAR Aho, Jarvis, Nystrom, Legault
- P1 0:00Legault: Roughing (2 min)
On ice: TOR Tavares, McCabe, Myers, Robertson, McMann · CAR Ehlers, Walker, Stankoven, Blake, Legault
- P1 0:00McMann: Roughing (2 min)
On ice: TOR Tavares, McCabe, Myers, Robertson, McMann · CAR Ehlers, Walker, Stankoven, Blake, Legault
- P1 0:00Period end4v4
- P2 0:00Period start
- P2 0:31Nylander: Hooking (2 min)4v4
On ice: TOR Rielly, Nylander, Carlo, Matthews · CAR Aho, Walker, Miller, Jarvis
- P2 1:08Shot by Svechnikov, saved by Hildeby3v4
- P2 1:37Shot by Ehlers, saved by Hildeby3v4
- P2 1:43Shot by Svechnikov, saved by Hildeby3v4
- P2 1:54Shot by Stankoven, saved by Hildeby3v4
- P2 4:49Shot by McCabe, saved by Bussi
- P2 5:24Shot by Svechnikov, saved by Hildeby
- P2 7:06McCabe: Interference (2 min)
On ice: TOR McCabe, Carlo, Roy, Robertson, McMann · CAR Hall, Walker, Robinson, Miller, Kotkaniemi
- P2 8:10Shot by Ehlers, saved by Hildeby4v5
- P2 11:03Goal by Matthews (McCabe, Knies)+14 pts WP
On ice: TOR McCabe, Nylander, Matthews, Benoit, Knies · CAR Staal, Martinook, Carrier, Walker, Miller
- P2 12:48Shot by Ehlers, saved by Hildeby
- P2 13:47Shot by Blake, saved by Hildeby
- P2 14:24Shot by Nikishin, saved by Hildeby
- P2 15:09Shot by Jarvis, saved by Hildeby
- P2 15:26Shot by Nikishin, saved by Hildeby
- P2 15:34Shot by Aho, saved by Hildeby
- P2 16:32Shot by Tavares, saved by Bussi
- P2 16:51Goal by Walker (Carrier)+13 pts WP
On ice: TOR Ekman-Larsson, Rielly, Nylander, Matthews, Knies · CAR Staal, Martinook, Carrier, Walker, Nikishin
- P2 17:47Blake: Slashing (2 min)6v5
On ice: TOR Tavares, McCabe, Nylander, Matthews, Robertson, McMann · CAR Ehlers, Walker, Nikishin, Stankoven, Blake
- P2 18:45Shot by Tavares, saved by Bussi5v4
- P2 18:47Shot by Matthews, saved by Bussi5v4
- P2 18:56Shot by Matthews, saved by Bussi5v4
- P2 19:28Shot by Tavares, saved by Bussi5v4
- P2 19:50Shot by Nylander, saved by Bussi
- P2 0:00Period end
- P3 0:00Period start
- P3 0:34Shot by Matthews, saved by Bussi
- P3 3:01Shot by Nystrom, saved by Hildeby
- P3 3:18Shot by Blake, saved by Hildeby
- P3 3:20Goal by Hall (Blake, Stankoven)+32 pts WP
On ice: TOR Rielly, Domi, Nylander, Myers, Knies · CAR Hall, Miller, Stankoven, Blake, Nystrom
- P3 3:33Shot by Hall, saved by Hildeby
- P3 4:56Staal: Tripping (2 min)
On ice: TOR Rielly, Joshua, Carlo, Roy, Maccelli · CAR Staal, Reilly, Martinook, Carrier, Nikishin
- P3 6:34Shot by Miller, saved by Hildeby5v4
- P3 6:59Shot by Kotkaniemi, saved by Hildeby
- P3 7:00Nylander: Hooking (2 min)
On ice: TOR Ekman-Larsson, McCabe, Nylander, Matthews, Knies · CAR Staal, Reilly, Robinson, Kotkaniemi, Nystrom
- P3 7:06Shot by Aho, saved by Hildeby4v5
- P3 7:08Shot by Svechnikov, saved by Hildeby4v5
- P3 7:40Shot by Jarvis, saved by Hildeby4v5
- P3 7:41Shot by Jarvis, saved by Hildeby4v5
- P3 7:50Shot by Miller, saved by Hildeby4v5
- P3 8:42Shot by Svechnikov, saved by Hildeby4v5
- P3 8:59Shot by Aho, saved by Hildeby4v5
- P3 9:12Shot by Blais, saved by Bussi
- P3 10:01Shot by Reilly, saved by Hildeby
- P3 11:03Shot by Miller, saved by Hildeby
- P3 12:13Goal by Stankoven (Miller, Ehlers)+28 pts WP
On ice: TOR McCabe, Nylander, Matthews, Benoit, Knies · CAR Ehlers, Miller, Stankoven, Blake, Nystrom
- P3 12:35Shot by Carrier, saved by Hildeby
- P3 13:45Shot by Ehlers, saved by Hildeby
- P3 14:40Shot by Hall, saved by Hildeby
- P3 17:15Shot by Nystrom, saved by Hildeby
- P3 17:19Shot by Ehlers, saved by Hildeby
- P3 18:49Shot by Miller, saved by Hildeby
- P3 0:00Period end6v5
- P3 0:00Final6v5