Sun, Nov 9, 2025·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Carolina Hurricanes 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 90% of the time.
87%
TOR winsCAR wins
Who was on the ice
Model-basedLine matchups and every shift of the game.
TOR forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against CAR's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.
| Staal–Martinook–Carrier | Aho–Svechnikov–Jarvis | Ehlers–Stankoven–Blake | Hall–Robinson–Kotkaniemi | Hall–Stankoven–Blake | Hall–Kotkaniemi–Blake | Walker–Miller | Nikishin–Nystrom | Reilly–Legault | Reilly–Nystrom | Walker–Nikishin | Reilly–Nikishin | Miller–Nystrom | Reilly–Walker | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nylander–Matthews–Knies | 4:140.36–0.09 | 4:490.06–0.26 | 0:380.00–0.26 | 4:310.22–0.15 | 2:370.00–0.25 | 1:070.01–0.21 | 1:030.00–0.00 | |||||||
| Joshua–Roy–Maccelli | 3:590.02–0.00 | 1:570.00–0.10 | 2:030.00–0.00 | 2:500.02–0.00 | 1:250.00–0.00 | 0:540.00–0.03 | 1:160.00–0.00 | 1:060.00–0.10 | 1:190.00–0.00 | |||||
| Tavares–Robertson–McMann | 1:270.00–0.01 | 2:120.00–0.13 | 2:580.42–0.02 | 0:440.00–0.00 | 0:500.00–0.00 | 2:240.37–0.01 | 1:420.00–0.11 | 1:170.04–0.01 | ||||||
| Jarnkrok–Domi–Blais | 0:310.07–0.22 | 2:230.00–0.17 | 1:190.00–1.07 | 0:470.00–1.16 | 0:480.00–0.00 | 1:250.00–0.00 | 0:300.07–0.22 | 1:000.00–0.08 | ||||||
| Roy–Robertson–McMann | 0:470.00–0.12 | |||||||||||||
| McCabe–Benoit | 1:330.12–0.00 | 4:540.01–0.26 | 1:320.00–0.11 | 0:380.00–0.00 | 3:280.12–0.04 | 3:070.00–0.16 | 1:090.01–0.00 | 0:430.00–0.10 | 0:300.00–0.00 | |||||
| Rielly–Carlo | 2:400.09–0.00 | 1:040.00–0.02 | 1:500.00–0.09 | 1:380.00–1.00 | 0:430.08–0.00 | 2:400.09–1.08 | 1:590.00–0.02 | 0:330.08–0.00 | 1:030.00–0.00 | 0:340.00–0.01 | ||||
| Ekman-Larsson–Myers | 2:070.00–0.11 | 1:280.02–0.00 | 1:100.00–0.00 | 1:110.00–0.00 | 1:040.00–0.00 | 0:360.00–0.22 | 0:400.00–0.03 | |||||||
| Rielly–Myers | 1:520.00–0.09 | 0:390.00–0.35 | 1:210.14–0.00 | 0:550.00–0.08 | ||||||||||
| McCabe–Myers | 0:300.00–0.00 | 0:520.00–0.09 | 0:310.00–0.00 | 0:560.00–0.00 | ||||||||||
| McCabe–Carlo | 1:000.00–0.05 | 1:180.00–0.12 | ||||||||||||
| Ekman-Larsson–Rielly | 1:140.07–0.23 | 0:300.00–0.00 | 0:460.00–0.15 | 0:330.00–0.15 | 0:420.00–0.00 | 0:300.07–0.22 | ||||||||
| Ekman-Larsson–McCabe | 0:510.00–0.00 | 0:300.00–0.01 | 0:300.00–0.00 | |||||||||||
| Carlo–Benoit | 0:470.02–0.00 | 1:160.02–0.00 | ||||||||||||
| Rielly–McCabe | 0:300.00–0.01 | 0:490.00–0.09 | 1:150.01–0.10 | |||||||||||
| Ekman-Larsson–Benoit | 0:380.00–0.00 | 0:380.00–0.00 |
Every shift, one row per player.
TORCARFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.
Shift totals
 Sean WalkerCAR | 34 | 26:43 | 0:47 | 2:16 | 7 | 6 |
 K'Andre MillerCAR | 32 | 25:33 | 0:48 | 2:01 | 8 | 5 |
 Jake McCabeTOR | 33 | 23:22 | 0:42 | 1:20 | 0 | 10 |
 Auston MatthewsTOR | 26 | 22:04 | 0:51 | 2:42 | 5 | 4 |
 William NylanderTOR | 26 | 21:19 | 0:49 | 2:33 | 4 | 2 |
 Matthew KniesTOR | 23 | 21:04 | 0:55 | 1:51 | 5 | 4 |
 Morgan RiellyTOR | 31 | 20:31 | 0:40 | 1:20 | 9 | 3 |
 Sebastian AhoCAR | 24 | 20:26 | 0:51 | 2:01 | 7 | 4 |
 Seth JarvisCAR | 23 | 19:59 | 0:52 | 2:01 | 6 | 3 |
 Brandon CarloTOR | 27 | 19:54 | 0:44 | 1:46 | 2 | 9 |
 Joel NystromCAR | 27 | 19:29 | 0:43 | 1:04 | 4 | 2 |
 Alexander NikishinCAR | 25 | 19:08 | 0:46 | 1:33 | 5 | 2 |
 John TavaresTOR | 19 | 18:31 | 0:58 | 2:51 | 3 | 4 |
 Simon BenoitTOR | 24 | 17:56 | 0:45 | 1:19 | 0 | 11 |
 Andrei SvechnikovCAR | 20 | 17:30 | 0:53 | 2:01 | 7 | 0 |
 Nicolas RoyTOR | 25 | 17:16 | 0:41 | 1:23 | 1 | 7 |
 Oliver Ekman-LarssonTOR | 22 | 17:12 | 0:47 | 1:43 | 3 | 0 |
 Jordan MartinookCAR | 25 | 16:52 | 0:40 | 1:08 | 2 | 4 |
 Nikolaj EhlersCAR | 18 | 15:59 | 0:53 | 2:01 | 5 | 1 |
 Jackson BlakeCAR | 19 | 15:32 | 0:49 | 1:23 | 5 | 1 |
 Mike ReillyCAR | 23 | 15:23 | 0:40 | 1:12 | 1 | 2 |
 Philippe MyersTOR | 21 | 15:08 | 0:43 | 1:55 | 1 | 4 |
 Jordan StaalCAR | 24 | 15:04 | 0:38 | 0:57 | 2 | 4 |
 Bobby McMannTOR | 22 | 14:51 | 0:41 | 1:14 | 1 | 5 |
 Logan StankovenCAR | 17 | 14:14 | 0:50 | 1:18 | 5 | 1 |
 Taylor HallCAR | 16 | 12:59 | 0:49 | 1:26 | 5 | 1 |
 Nick RobertsonTOR | 18 | 12:33 | 0:42 | 1:07 | 3 | 5 |
 Matias MaccelliTOR | 17 | 12:30 | 0:44 | 1:19 | 1 | 0 |
 William CarrierCAR | 21 | 12:25 | 0:35 | 0:57 | 2 | 2 |
 Dakota JoshuaTOR | 19 | 12:13 | 0:39 | 1:23 | 0 | 0 |
 Calle JarnkrokTOR | 14 | 10:37 | 0:46 | 1:41 | 1 | 5 |
 Jesperi KotkaniemiCAR | 14 | 9:51 | 0:42 | 1:36 | 2 | 1 |
 Max DomiTOR | 12 | 8:30 | 0:43 | 1:23 | 2 | 2 |
 Eric RobinsonCAR | 14 | 8:25 | 0:36 | 0:58 | 2 | 1 |
 Sammy BlaisTOR | 11 | 7:25 | 0:40 | 0:56 | 0 | 2 |
 Charles Alexis LegaultCAR | 10 | 7:15 | 0:44 | 1:26 | 1 | 0 |