Wed, Feb 25, 2026·Benchmark International Arena, Tampa
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 08 | 014 | 212 | 234 |
| TBL | 04 | 220 | 212 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:07TBLBrayden PointAssists: Charle-Edouard D'Astous, Pontus Holmberg · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 7:58TBLGage GoncalvesAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Charle-Edouard D'Astous · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–2
- P3 2:59TBLNikita KucherovGWGAssists: Gage Goncalves, Brayden Point · Slap, 0.06 xG0–3
- P3 16:19TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: William Nylander, Matthew Knies · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 16:30TBLBrayden PointAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Gage Goncalves · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–4
- P3 17:13TORMatthew KniesAssists: William Nylander, Auston Matthews · Snap, 0.01 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 14:06TORSimon Benoit: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:48TBLErik Cernak: Interference2 min
- P2 7:58TOROliver Ekman-Larsson: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:24TORAuston Matthews: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:43TORSimon Benoit: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:54TBLRyan McDonagh: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Nylander – Maccelli9:34
xG 0.95–0.58 (62%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Domi – Matthews – Knies3:47
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Roy – Robertson – Knies7:30
xG 0.41–0.51 (45%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
- Jarnkrok – Laughton – Lorentz5:06
xG 0.10–0.43 (19%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Benoit3:21
xG 0.40–0.31 (56%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- McCabe – Stecher4:20
xG 0.33–0.25 (57%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Rielly – Carlo8:59
xG 0.44–0.47 (49%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Point – Goncalves7:37
xG 0.80–0.30 (72%)attempts 10–5goals 3–0
- Gourde – Girgensons – Holmberg11:05
xG 0.39–0.26 (60%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Guentzel – Hagel – James7:17
xG 0.60–0.48 (55%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Bjorkstrand – Point2:00
xG 0.24–0.16 (60%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestD'Astous – Lilleberg5:59
xG 0.54–0.03 (94%)attempts 9–3goals 2–0
- Raddysh – Moser12:24
xG 1.01–0.71 (59%)attempts 19–11goals 1–0
- Raddysh – D'Astous2:12
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).