Wed, Feb 25, 2026·Benchmark International Arena, Tampa
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 76% of the time.
70%
19%
TBL winsTOR wins
Who was on the ice
Model-basedLine matchups and every shift of the game.
TBL forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against TOR's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.
| Tavares–Nylander–Maccelli | Domi–Matthews–McMann | Roy–Robertson–Knies | Jarnkrok–Laughton–Lorentz | Domi–Matthews–Knies | Roy–Robertson–McMann | Tavares–Nylander–Matthews | Rielly–Carlo | Ekman-Larsson–McCabe | Stecher–Benoit | Ekman-Larsson–Rielly | McCabe–Stecher | Ekman-Larsson–Benoit | McCabe–Carlo | Rielly–Stecher | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gourde–Girgensons–Holmberg | 5:060.37–0.08 | 0:340.00–0.05 | 3:020.00–0.13 | 3:160.04–0.08 | 1:260.00–0.05 | 0:570.01–0.00 | 2:420.00–0.03 | 1:180.13–0.05 | |||||||
| Kucherov–Point–Goncalves | 3:310.32–0.29 | 1:110.18–0.01 | 1:330.13–0.00 | 1:110.18–0.00 | 2:530.32–0.29 | 0:300.06–0.00 | 1:340.13–0.00 | ||||||||
| Guentzel–Hagel–James | 2:310.04–0.03 | 2:370.17–0.34 | 1:040.06–0.00 | 1:240.20–0.00 | 1:050.20–0.00 | 1:230.00–0.13 | 0:300.00–0.00 | 1:230.03–0.03 | 0:510.04–0.21 | ||||||
| Kucherov–Bjorkstrand–Point | 0:480.19–0.11 | 0:520.05–0.00 | 0:460.19–0.11 | 0:560.05–0.00 | |||||||||||
| Kucherov–Point–Hagel | 0:380.00–0.00 | 0:400.00–0.05 | |||||||||||||
| Sabourin–Bjorkstrand–Holmberg | 0:370.00–0.00 | 0:410.27–0.00 | |||||||||||||
| Guentzel–Hagel–Goncalves | 1:120.06–0.00 | 0:440.06–0.00 | |||||||||||||
| Kucherov–Gourde–Girgensons | 0:480.09–0.06 | 0:350.09–0.00 | |||||||||||||
| Raddysh–Moser | 5:100.29–0.45 | 0:450.00–0.05 | 2:210.23–0.01 | 1:010.09–0.10 | 1:570.23–0.04 | 3:070.29–0.42 | 1:570.20–0.00 | 0:530.09–0.00 | 1:000.00–0.03 | 0:360.04–0.01 | |||||
| McDonagh–Cernak | 5:110.37–0.04 | 0:320.01–0.00 | 0:360.00–0.05 | 3:100.00–0.13 | 3:070.04–0.35 | 1:150.00–0.00 | 0:480.01–0.00 | 2:580.00–0.03 | 1:340.13–0.05 | ||||||
| D'Astous–Lilleberg | 2:090.22–0.03 | 1:000.06–0.00 | 0:490.24–0.00 | 1:410.02–0.00 | 1:080.14–0.00 | 3:150.29–0.03 | 0:300.00–0.00 | ||||||||
| Hedman–D'Astous | 1:310.03–0.21 | 1:360.16–0.03 | 0:560.00–0.05 | 1:180.15–0.03 | 1:130.01–0.21 | ||||||||||
| Raddysh–D'Astous | 1:490.13–0.00 | 1:380.13–0.00 | |||||||||||||
| Hedman–Cernak | 0:310.00–0.06 | ||||||||||||||
| Hedman–Raddysh | 0:560.00–0.13 | 1:000.00–0.13 | |||||||||||||
| Hedman–Lilleberg | 0:370.00–0.00 | 0:440.00–0.00 | |||||||||||||
| D'Astous–Moser | 0:330.06–0.00 | 0:430.06–0.00 |
Every shift, one row per player.
TBLTORFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.
Shift totals
 Nikita KucherovTBL | 19 | 23:57 | 1:16 | 2:55 | 5 | 2 |
 Darren RaddyshTBL | 20 | 23:55 | 1:12 | 2:31 | 6 | 1 |
 Auston MatthewsTOR | 20 | 22:54 | 1:09 | 3:30 | 4 | 2 |
 Oliver Ekman-LarssonTOR | 29 | 22:40 | 0:47 | 1:51 | 7 | 6 |
 Jake GuentzelTBL | 22 | 22:25 | 1:01 | 2:59 | 1 | 4 |
 Brayden PointTBL | 21 | 22:16 | 1:04 | 2:54 | 8 | 2 |
 Jake McCabeTOR | 25 | 22:00 | 0:53 | 2:14 | 1 | 6 |
 Brandon HagelTBL | 26 | 20:30 | 0:47 | 1:39 | 1 | 3 |
 Morgan RiellyTOR | 26 | 20:09 | 0:47 | 1:20 | 2 | 3 |
 Yanni GourdeTBL | 22 | 19:53 | 0:54 | 1:48 | 3 | 5 |
 William NylanderTOR | 19 | 19:02 | 1:00 | 2:22 | 3 | 2 |
 J.J. MoserTBL | 24 | 18:53 | 0:47 | 1:39 | 3 | 3 |
 Max DomiTOR | 21 | 18:31 | 0:53 | 1:20 | 4 | 2 |
 Zemgus GirgensonsTBL | 25 | 17:54 | 0:43 | 1:26 | 3 | 8 |
 Matthew KniesTOR | 19 | 17:48 | 0:56 | 2:22 | 4 | 2 |
 Brandon CarloTOR | 23 | 17:43 | 0:46 | 1:54 | 2 | 4 |
 John TavaresTOR | 18 | 17:29 | 0:58 | 1:59 | 3 | 2 |
 Erik CernakTBL | 20 | 17:04 | 0:51 | 2:30 | 2 | 4 |
 Troy StecherTOR | 24 | 16:28 | 0:41 | 1:51 | 1 | 0 |
 Ryan McDonaghTBL | 20 | 16:19 | 0:49 | 1:48 | 2 | 5 |
 Pontus HolmbergTBL | 20 | 15:43 | 0:47 | 1:39 | 5 | 2 |
 Nicolas RoyTOR | 21 | 15:22 | 0:44 | 1:22 | 3 | 1 |
 Charle-Edouard D'AstousTBL | 20 | 15:09 | 0:45 | 1:47 | 5 | 2 |
 Simon BenoitTOR | 21 | 14:32 | 0:42 | 1:18 | 1 | 0 |
 Bobby McMannTOR | 17 | 14:24 | 0:51 | 1:41 | 4 | 1 |
 Matias MaccelliTOR | 17 | 14:15 | 0:50 | 1:25 | 3 | 1 |
 Nick RobertsonTOR | 16 | 12:52 | 0:48 | 1:08 | 3 | 1 |
 Oliver BjorkstrandTBL | 16 | 12:29 | 0:47 | 1:47 | 5 | 2 |
 Scott LaughtonTOR | 16 | 12:02 | 0:45 | 1:51 | 1 | 5 |
 Gage GoncalvesTBL | 14 | 11:51 | 0:51 | 1:33 | 5 | 0 |
 Victor HedmanTBL | 18 | 11:51 | 0:40 | 1:09 | 3 | 2 |
 Dominic JamesTBL | 13 | 10:59 | 0:51 | 1:27 | 1 | 3 |
 Steven LorentzTOR | 13 | 10:18 | 0:48 | 1:45 | 1 | 4 |
 Emil LillebergTBL | 16 | 9:33 | 0:36 | 1:09 | 1 | 2 |
 Calle JarnkrokTOR | 12 | 8:11 | 0:41 | 1:56 | 0 | 2 |
 Scott SabourinTBL | 9 | 5:54 | 0:39 | 1:03 | 2 | 1 |