Wed, Feb 25, 2026·Benchmark International Arena, Tampa
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 76% of the time.
70%
19%
TBL winsTOR wins
Toronto Maple Leafs
Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).
 Auston MatthewsC · #34 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 22:54 | 0.11 | 33.3% | +0.7 |
 Oliver Ekman-LarssonD · #95 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 22:40 | 0.49 | 41.1% | 0.0 |
 Jake McCabeD · #22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 1 | 22:00 | 0.00 | 36.2% | 0.0 |
 Morgan RiellyD · #44 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 3 | 20:09 | 0.09 | 41.0% | 0.0 |
 William NylanderRW · #88 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 19:02 | 0.48 | 52.2% | +1.7 |
 Max DomiC · #11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 18:31 | 0.28 | 18.1% | 0.0 |
 Matthew KniesLW · #23 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 17:48 | 0.41 | 46.9% | +1.7 |
 Brandon CarloD · #25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17:43 | 0.04 | 40.0% | 0.0 |
 John TavaresC · #91 | 1 | 0 | 1 | −1 | 3 | 17:29 | 0.20 | 57.9% | +1.0 |
 Troy StecherD · #28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 1 | 16:28 | 0.03 | 37.3% | 0.0 |
 Nicolas RoyC · #55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 0 | 15:22 | 0.21 | 34.1% | 0.0 |
 Simon BenoitD · #2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 1 | 14:32 | 0.08 | 42.8% | 0.0 |
 Bobby McMannC · #74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 3 | 14:24 | 0.47 | 15.7% | 0.0 |
 Matias MaccelliLW · #63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 4 | 14:15 | 0.41 | 48.1% | 0.0 |
 Nick RobertsonLW · #89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 1 | 12:52 | 0.27 | 49.4% | 0.0 |
 Scott LaughtonC · #24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 1 | 12:02 | 0.05 | 14.0% | 0.0 |
 Steven LorentzC · #18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10:18 | 0.19 | 46.1% | 0.0 |
 Calle JarnkrokC · #19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:11 | 0.04 | 18.5% | 0.0 |
 Anthony Stolarz#41 | L | 36 | 32 | 4 | .889 | 5.05 | +1.0 | 55:20 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).
 Nikita KucherovRW · #86 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +3 | 2 | 23:57 | 0.23 | 69.3% | +21.1 |
 Darren RaddyshD · #43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 | 23:55 | 0.27 | 56.2% | 0.0 |
 Jake GuentzelC · #59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 22:25 | 1.37 | 52.5% | 0.0 |
 Brayden PointC · #21 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +4 | 5 | 22:16 | 1.56 | 71.9% | +29.4 |
 Brandon HagelLW · #38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 20:30 | 0.45 | 56.7% | 0.0 |
 Yanni GourdeC · #37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 3 | 19:53 | 0.22 | 45.6% | 0.0 |
 J.J. MoserD · #90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 18:53 | 0.33 | 64.5% | 0.0 |
 Zemgus GirgensonsC · #28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 2 | 17:54 | 0.32 | 57.7% | 0.0 |
 Erik CernakD · #81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 17:04 | 0.00 | 50.2% | 0.0 |
 Ryan McDonaghD · #27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 16:19 | 0.00 | 42.6% | 0.0 |
 Pontus HolmbergRW · #29 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:43 | 0.00 | 77.4% | +23.4 |
 Charle-Edouard D'AstousD · #51 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 15:09 | 0.04 | 81.0% | +38.5 |
 Oliver BjorkstrandRW · #22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12:29 | 0.54 | 69.1% | 0.0 |
 Gage GoncalvesC · #93 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +4 | 2 | 11:51 | 0.22 | 74.2% | +21.1 |
 Victor HedmanD · #77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11:51 | 0.05 | 47.3% | 0.0 |
 Dominic JamesC · #17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10:59 | 0.09 | 40.9% | 0.0 |
 Emil LillebergD · #78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 9:33 | 0.00 | 95.6% | 0.0 |
 Scott SabourinRW · #46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:54 | 0.11 | 45.5% | 0.0 |
 Andrei Vasilevskiy#88 | W | 34 | 32 | 2 | .941 | 3.86 | +1.9 | 60:00 |