Skip to content
Ice Lab

Wed, Feb 25, 2026·Benchmark International Arena, Tampa

Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 4

Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

2

Final

Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 76% of the time.

TBL winsTOR wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 1:08Shot by Maccelli, saved by Vasilevskiy
  3. P1 2:23Shot by Hagel, saved by Stolarz
  4. P1 3:28Shot by Point, saved by Stolarz
  5. P1 3:46Shot by Nylander, saved by Vasilevskiy
  6. P1 5:09Shot by McMann, saved by Vasilevskiy
  7. P1 10:07Shot by Tavares, saved by Vasilevskiy
  8. P1 14:06Benoit: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Kucherov, Guentzel, Raddysh, Goncalves, Moser · TOR McCabe, Roy, Benoit, Robertson, Knies

  9. P1 14:18Shot by Bjorkstrand, saved by Stolarz5v4
  10. P1 14:46Shot by Raddysh, saved by Stolarz5v4
  11. P1 15:52Shot by McCabe, saved by Vasilevskiy5v4
  12. P1 16:43Shot by Ekman-Larsson, saved by Vasilevskiy
  13. P1 16:49Shot by Ekman-Larsson, saved by Vasilevskiy
  14. P1 17:01Shot by Nylander, saved by Vasilevskiy
  15. P1 0:00Period end
  16. P2 0:00Period start
  17. P2 0:48Cernak: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: TBL McDonagh, Gourde, Girgensons, Cernak, Holmberg · TOR Ekman-Larsson, McCabe, Nylander, Matthews, Maccelli

  18. P2 2:10Shot by McMann, saved by Vasilevskiy4v5
  19. P2 2:11Shot by Domi, saved by Vasilevskiy4v5
  20. P2 2:16Shot by Maccelli, saved by Vasilevskiy4v5
  21. P2 2:52Shot by Moser, saved by Stolarz
  22. P2 4:03Shot by Kucherov, saved by Stolarz
  23. P2 5:15Shot by Guentzel, saved by Stolarz
  24. P2 5:26Shot by James, saved by Stolarz
  25. P2 6:37Shot by Gourde, saved by Stolarz
  26. P2 7:07Goal by Point (D'Astous, Holmberg)+23 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Point, D'Astous, Holmberg, Goncalves, Lilleberg · TOR Roy, Stecher, Benoit, Robertson, Knies

  27. P2 7:41Shot by Maccelli, saved by Vasilevskiy
  28. P2 7:58Goal by Goncalves (Kucherov, D'Astous)+15 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Kucherov, Point, D'Astous, Goncalves, Lilleberg · TOR Tavares, Ekman-Larsson, McCabe, Nylander, Maccelli

  29. P2 7:58Ekman-Larsson: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Kucherov, Point, D'Astous, Goncalves, Lilleberg · TOR Tavares, Ekman-Larsson, McCabe, Nylander, Maccelli

  30. P2 8:32Shot by Point, saved by Stolarz5v4
  31. P2 8:40Shot by Bjorkstrand, saved by Stolarz5v4
  32. P2 9:02Shot by Lorentz, saved by Vasilevskiy5v4
  33. P2 9:26Shot by Raddysh, saved by Stolarz5v4
  34. P2 10:50Shot by Girgensons, saved by Stolarz
  35. P2 11:04Shot by Domi, saved by Vasilevskiy
  36. P2 11:24Shot by Raddysh, saved by Stolarz
  37. P2 11:50Shot by Nylander, saved by Vasilevskiy
  38. P2 11:59Shot by James, saved by Stolarz
  39. P2 13:04Shot by Goncalves, saved by Stolarz
  40. P2 13:30Shot by Rielly, saved by Vasilevskiy
  41. P2 14:41Shot by Laughton, saved by Vasilevskiy
  42. P2 15:14Shot by Robertson, saved by Vasilevskiy
  43. P2 16:03Shot by Guentzel, saved by Stolarz
  44. P2 16:26Shot by Ekman-Larsson, saved by Vasilevskiy
  45. P2 16:58Shot by Moser, saved by Stolarz
  46. P2 17:15Shot by Gourde, saved by Stolarz
  47. P2 18:28Shot by James, saved by Stolarz
  48. P2 18:40Shot by Benoit, saved by Vasilevskiy
  49. P2 18:51Shot by Guentzel, saved by Stolarz
  50. P2 19:11Shot by Carlo, saved by Vasilevskiy
  51. P2 19:32Shot by Girgensons, saved by Stolarz
  52. P2 19:56Shot by Tavares, saved by Vasilevskiy
  53. P2 0:00Period end
  54. P3 0:00Period start
  55. P3 0:25Shot by Matthews, saved by Vasilevskiy
  56. P3 1:01Shot by Hagel, saved by Stolarz
  57. P3 1:53Shot by Guentzel, saved by Stolarz
  58. P3 2:59Goal by Kucherov (Goncalves, Point)+5 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Kucherov, Point, Goncalves, Moser, Lilleberg · TOR Laughton, Stecher, Benoit, Robertson, McMann

  59. P3 3:17Shot by Rielly, saved by Vasilevskiy
  60. P3 5:24Matthews: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Guentzel, Hagel, D'Astous, Holmberg, Lilleberg · TOR McCabe, Domi, Carlo, Matthews, Knies

  61. P3 7:05Shot by Guentzel, saved by Stolarz5v4
  62. P3 7:06Shot by Point, saved by Stolarz5v4
  63. P3 7:17Shot by Hagel, saved by Stolarz5v4
  64. P3 9:40Shot by Hagel, saved by Stolarz
  65. P3 9:43Benoit: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Hedman, Sabourin, Bjorkstrand, Hagel, D'Astous · TOR Roy, Stecher, Benoit, Robertson, McMann

  66. P3 10:11Shot by Bjorkstrand, saved by Stolarz5v4
  67. P3 11:42Shot by Gourde, saved by Stolarz5v4
  68. P3 11:47Shot by Hedman, saved by Stolarz
  69. P3 12:08Shot by Matthews, saved by Vasilevskiy
  70. P3 12:28Shot by Rielly, saved by Vasilevskiy
  71. P3 13:01Shot by Stecher, saved by Vasilevskiy
  72. P3 13:47Shot by Bjorkstrand, saved by Stolarz
  73. P3 14:54McDonagh: Holding (2 min)5v6

    On ice: TBL McDonagh, Kucherov, Point, Cernak, Hagel · TOR Tavares, Ekman-Larsson, Domi, Nylander, Matthews, Knies

  74. P3 15:28Shot by Knies, saved by Vasilevskiy4v6
  75. P3 15:30Shot by Knies, saved by Vasilevskiy4v6
  76. P3 16:19Goal by Tavares (Nylander, Knies)4v6+1 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Hedman, Guentzel, Hagel, Lilleberg · TOR Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, Matthews, Maccelli, Knies

  77. P3 16:30Goal by Point (Kucherov, Goncalves)+1 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Kucherov, Point, Raddysh, Goncalves, Moser · TOR Rielly, Laughton, McCabe, Roy, McMann

  78. P3 17:13Goal by Knies (Nylander, Matthews)5v6+1 pts WP

    On ice: TBL McDonagh, Gourde, Girgensons, Cernak, Holmberg · TOR Ekman-Larsson, Domi, Nylander, Matthews, McMann, Knies

  79. P3 18:50Shot by Nylander, saved by Vasilevskiy5v6
  80. P3 18:55Shot by Maccelli, saved by Vasilevskiy5v6
  81. P3 18:57Shot by McMann, saved by Vasilevskiy5v6
  82. P3 0:00Period end5v6
  83. P3 0:00Final5v6